Economy Type
**Conflict-Affected Agriculture–Resource–Border Trade Economy
(Conflict-influenced agriculture, resource, and border trade economy)**
Myanmar is classified as a Conflict-Affected Agriculture–Resource–Border Trade Economy .
Myanmar's economy is based on agriculture, natural gas, garment manufacturing, food processing, minerals, forestry products, and border trade centered on China and Thailand. While it possesses significant geographical potential connecting the Indian Ocean, southwestern China, and Thailand, political and armed conflicts, power shortages, exchange rate and foreign exchange controls, and international sanctions severely restrict economic activity.
The powerful earthquake that struck in March 2025 further exacerbated existing conflicts and supply chain instability. The World Bank estimated the economic output loss due to the earthquake for the 2025/26 fiscal year at $2.6 billion, or about 4% of GDP. While some production and transportation recovered by the end of 2025, sluggish domestic demand, labor shortages, and frequent power outages persisted.
Country Definition
Myanmar is a high-risk market in Southeast Asia that possesses potential for agriculture, gas, clothing, minerals, and geopolitical corridors, but normal industrialization and supply chain operations are restricted due to conflict and institutional uncertainty.
Why It Matters
Myanmar borders China, India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand, and is connected to the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, it has great potential as a western axis connecting the land and port corridors extending from southwestern China to the Indian Ocean, as well as Thailand's manufacturing supply chain.
It also possesses natural gas, agricultural products, minerals such as copper, tin, nickel, and rare earth elements, hydroelectric resources, and a young workforce. However, as the economy is heavily exposed to border controls, armed conflict, sanctions, power shortages, and informal trade, it is essential to distinguish between the potential of resources and locations and the actual feasibility of business operations.
According to UNCTAD, merchandise exports in 2024 amounted to approximately $14.9 billion and imports to approximately $12.5 billion, recording a merchandise trade surplus of about $2.5 billion. Since this includes the impact of import restraints and the export of agricultural products and resources, it is difficult to interpret this solely as a result of normal industrial competitiveness.
Korea Perspective
For South Korea, Myanmar was previously a focus of attention for its garment manufacturing, construction, finance, energy, and consumer goods markets, but currently, it is a country where the management of sanctions, human rights, payments, and safety risks takes priority over general market expansion .
The areas that can be reviewed at this stage are as follows.
- Food and agricultural productivity
- Health, medicines, and humanitarian aid
- Disaster recovery and water treatment
- Electricity and Small-Scale Solar Power
- Storage and processing of agricultural and food products
- responsible supply chain due diligence
- Protection of existing investment assets
- Market monitoring in preparation for future normalization
Key Keywords
- Political Conflict
- Agriculture
- Natural Gas
- Garment Manufacturing
- Border Trade
- Rare Earths
- China–Myanmar Corridor
- Thailand Supply Chain
- Sanctions Compliance
- Humanitarian Economy
Myanmar is the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia, with its capital being Naypyidaw and its largest commercial city being Yangon. The IMF's 2026 population estimate is approximately 55.19 million.
The economic zones are divided into the Yangon Industrial and Port Zone, the Mandalay Inland Commercial Zone, the China Border Zone, the Thailand Border Manufacturing and Trade Zone, and the Western and Southern Offshore Energy Zones.
Since the military seized power in 2021, political and armed conflicts have escalated nationwide, and the normal operation of administration, finance, transportation, education, and labor markets has been disrupted. The 2025 major earthquake exacerbated damage to infrastructure, housing, and production facilities in Mandalay and the central region.
Key Features
- Strategic location between China, India, and Thailand
- Approach to the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal
- Large rural population and agriculture
- Diverse ethnic and regional structures
- Prolonged armed conflict
- Instability in power, financial, and administrative systems
Myanmar's economy consists of agriculture, manufacturing, mining and gas, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, and communications.
Forecasts from international agencies vary significantly due to limited access to statistics and exchange rate distortions. The ADB lowered its growth forecast to -3.0% in 2025 to account for earthquakes and macroeconomic instability, while projecting a recovery of approximately 1.6% in 2026. In contrast, the IMF's 2026 forecast projects a real growth rate of 3.0% and a consumer price inflation rate of 19.0%. Therefore, rather than relying on a single forecast, it is necessary to consider the conditions of production, prices, exchange rates, and the power sector together.
According to the ADB, inflation reached approximately 25.2% in 2025, and rising costs for food, housing, medical care, and transportation significantly increased the burden on households.
Market characteristics
- Purchasing power and domestic demand have contracted significantly.
- Discrepancy between official exchange rate and market exchange rate
- Uncertainty regarding foreign exchange allocation and import permits
- Increase in the proportion of cash and informal transactions
- Continued power shortages and logistics disruptions
- There are significant differences in market accessibility by region.
MarketHub Point
Rather than evaluating Myanmar as a general consumer market, one must first assess regional control situations, payment capabilities, power and logistics, and exposure to sanctions.
Myanmar's key industries are agriculture, natural gas, garment manufacturing, food processing, minerals, forest products, electricity, and border trade.
Agriculture centers on rice, legumes, corn, sesame, rubber, fisheries, and livestock. While it is crucial for rural employment and food security, productivity is low due to fertilizer and fuel prices, irrigation shortages, climate disasters, and transportation constraints.
Natural gas is a major source of foreign currency revenue supplied to Thailand and China. However, energy businesses must consider the risks associated with sanctions, transactions with state-owned enterprises, profit sharing, and human rights due diligence.
의류봉제는 유럽·일본·한국 등 해외 주문을 기반으로 성장했으나 국제브랜드 철수, 전력난, 물류비 상승과 노동권 문제가 경쟁력을 약화시켰다.
북부·동부 지역에는 구리, 주석, 텅스텐, 니켈, 희토류와 보석 자원이 분포한다. 하지만 생산·수출의 투명성, 환경·인권과 비공식 국경거래 문제가 크다.
핵심 산업
- 쌀·콩류·농식품
- 천연가스
- 의류·신발 봉제
- 식품·수산가공
- 구리·주석·희토류
- 보석·옥
- 수력발전
- 목재·고무
- 국경무역·운송
핵심 경쟁자원
- 중국·인도·태국 사이 입지
- 풍부한 농업용지
- 천연가스와 광물
- 낮은 잠재 노동비용
- 인도양 접근성
- 중국·태국 육상회랑
MarketHub Point
미얀마의 자원과 노동력은 잠재력이 크지만, 공급망 투명성·인권·제재·지역통제 문제를 해결하지 못하면 정상적인 산업자산으로 평가하기 어렵다.
미얀마의 주요 수출품은 천연가스, 의류, 쌀·콩류·옥수수, 수산물, 금속·광물과 고무다. 주요 수입품은 연료, 기계, 차량, 전기전자, 의약품, 화학제품과 산업용 중간재다.
UNCTAD 기준 2024년 상품수출은 약 149억2천만 달러, 수입은 약 124억5천만 달러였다. 같은 해 GDP는 약 461억 달러, 1인당 GDP는 약 846달러로 추정됐다.
중국과 태국은 최대 교역·국경물류 파트너다. 중국은 원자재·기계·소비재 공급과 농산물·광물 구매에서 중요하며, 태국은 천연가스·농산물·노동·국경제조와 연결된다. 인도·싱가포르·일본도 주요 거래국이다.
국경통로는 무력충돌과 통제권 변화에 따라 반복적으로 폐쇄되거나 지연될 수 있다. 양곤항과 틸라와항도 전력·통관·외환규제의 영향을 받는다.
주요 교역국
- 중국
- 태국
- 싱가포르
- 인도
- 일본
- 말레이시아
- 인도네시아
- 대한민국
- 방글라데시
공급망 특징
- 중국·태국 의존도가 높음
- 국경무역 비중이 큼
- 가스·농산물·의류 중심 수출
- 수입허가·외환통제가 강함
- 항만·도로·전력 신뢰성이 낮음
- 비공식·우회무역 위험이 큼
MarketHub Point
미얀마 공급망은 가격보다 통제지역, 국경개방, 제재대상, 최종수익자와 대금회수 가능성을 우선 검증해야 한다.
Market Characteristics
미얀마 시장은 중앙정부의 공식 규정만으로 설명하기 어렵다. 지역별 통제주체, 은행·외환 접근성, 물류경로와 사업장 안전이 실제 사업운영을 좌우한다.
기존 투자기업은 자산보호, 직원안전, 계약이행, 세금·사용료의 최종귀속과 국제제재 준수를 함께 관리해야 한다. 신규 투자는 높은 수익가능성보다 법적·평판·인권 리스크를 먼저 평가해야 한다.
Opportunities
- 식량생산·농업기술
- 관개·저장·콜드체인
- 필수 의약품·의료장비
- 태양광·독립형 전력
- 수처리·위생
- 지진·홍수 재난복구
- 농식품 소규모 가공
- 책임 있는 공급망 추적
- 향후 경제정상화 대비 조사
Risks
- 무력충돌·사업장 안전
- 국제제재·수출통제
- 군 관련 기업 거래위험
- 인권·강제노동·평판위험
- 외환·송금·대금회수
- 정전·통신차단
- 국경·항만 폐쇄
- 계약·사법 집행 불확실성
- 지진·홍수·사이클론
미얀마 경제의 중기전망은 일반적인 경기순환보다 정치·분쟁상황, 전력공급, 환율과 국제관계에 의해 좌우될 가능성이 크다.
세계은행은 2025년 하반기에 공장가동률과 화물운송이 일부 개선됐다고 평가했지만, 약한 국내수요, 노동력 부족, 재건재원 부족과 잦은 정전이 회복을 제한한다고 밝혔다.
ADB는 2025년 위축 이후 2026년 낮은 수준의 회복을 예상했으며, IMF는 이보다 높은 3.0% 성장을 제시한다. 전망 격차 자체가 미얀마 경제자료와 정책환경의 높은 불확실성을 보여준다.
향후 주목할 변화
- 무력분쟁과 지역통제 변화
- 2025년 지진 복구
- 환율·외환규제
- 전력공급 정상화
- 중국·태국 국경개방
- 천연가스 생산·수출
- 의류 주문과 국제브랜드 정책
- 농업생산·식량가격
- 국제제재와 금융접근
- 인도적 지원과 재건수요
Market Position
High-Risk Mainland Southeast Asia Corridor + Resource and Agriculture Base
중국·인도·태국과 인도양을 연결하지만 분쟁·제재·전력·금융위험이 매우 높은 농업·자원·회랑 시장
Key Opportunities
- 농업·식량안보
- 수처리·보건
- 소형 태양광
- 재난복구
- 농식품 저장·가공
- 공급망 추적
- 기존 투자자산 관리
- 장기 시장 모니터링
Recommended Strategy
Screen
제재대상, 군 관련 기업, 최종수익자와 인권위험을 우선 조사한다.
↓
Map
지역별 통제상황, 국경·항만, 전력과 결제경로를 구분한다.
↓
Limit
필수품·인도적·저위험 사업과 기존 자산보호를 중심으로 범위를 제한한다.
↓
Prepare
정치·경제 정상화 가능성에 대비해 농업·전력·물류·제조 기반 데이터를 지속 축적한다.
Final Assessment
미얀마는 장기적으로 농업·자원·노동력과 인도양 회랑의 잠재력이 크지만, 현재는 성장기회보다 분쟁·제재·인권·결제위험을 우선 관리해야 하는 고위험 시장이다.
조사 범위
본 자료는 국제기구의 최신 경제·무역·재난·시장자료를 중심으로 교차 검토하였다.
국제기구
- World Bank
- International Monetary Fund
- Asian Development Bank
- UNCTAD
- World Trade Organization
- International Labour Organization
- United Nations OCHA
주요 조사자료
- World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2025
- World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, December 2025
- World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2026
- IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- ADB Asian Development Outlook, September 2025
- ADB Myanmar Economy Data
- UNCTAD Myanmar General Profile 2025
- World Bank Myanmar Earthquake Economic Assessment
Writing Verification
본 문서는 다음 원칙에 따라 작성하였다.
- 2025년 지진과 기존 경제위기를 구분
- Specify the difference between IMF and ADB growth forecasts
- Verify 2024 merchandise imports and exports using official UNCTAD statistics
- Distinguishing between official trade surpluses and actual industrial recovery
- Balanced evaluation of agriculture, gas, clothing, minerals, and corridor industries
- Focus on business and supply chain risks rather than judging political legitimacy
- Verification of sanctions, human rights, and end beneficiaries reflected as core conditions
- Application of a principle of restricted and selective access rather than new entry for South Korean companies
- Apply MarketHub Country Intelligence standard template
Myanmar is a strategic corridor country in Southeast Asia based on agriculture, natural gas, garment manufacturing, minerals, and border trade with China and Thailand.
Its location connecting China, India, Thailand, and the Indian Ocean, along with its abundant land, resources, and labor force, provides long-term potential. However, due to prolonged political and armed conflicts, power shortages, foreign exchange controls, and sanctions since 2021, this potential has not translated into actual industrial growth.
The massive earthquake in 2025 dealt an additional blow to already vulnerable production, logistics, and housing infrastructure. Although some factory operations and transportation recovered by the end of 2025, high prices, weak domestic demand, and unstable power supply persist.
The Republic of Korea must not approach Myanmar as a general emerging consumer market or a low-cost manufacturing base. Currently, the focus should be on limited sectors such as essential medicines, agriculture and food, water treatment, standalone power, disaster recovery, and the protection of existing investment assets, while sanctions, human rights, ultimate beneficiaries, and settlement risks must be verified first in all transactions.
Final evaluation
Myanmar possesses an agricultural, resource, and border trade base as well as a strategic location, but it is a 'conflict-affected agriculture, resource, and border trade economy' where conflict and institutional collapse constrain its economic potential.
MarketHub classifies Myanmar not as a short-term sales and investment market, but as a high-risk Southeast Asian supply chain observation market where one must monitor political, security, sanctions, and human rights risks in real time and prepare for essential industries and the possibility of long-term normalization .