알림 목록

Analysis Areas: Busan Metropolitan City, Ulsan Metropolitan City, Gyeongsangnam-do

Core Regions: Busan–Gimhae–Yangsan–Ulsan Living Axis, Busan Port–Ulsan–Changwon–Geoje Industrial Axis

Agenda: Whether the functional rights of the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region align with administrative data rights

Golden Time Type: Functional Mega-region + Data Fragmentation Risk

Reference Date: 2026.08.28

Version: Regional AX Golden Time Intelligence v3.2 Enhancement Standard
 

Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam already transcend administrative boundaries in transportation, employment, and corporate supply chains. In September 2025, inter-regional public transportation transfer fares between Busan, Gimhae, and Yangsan became completely free, and the Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan metropolitan railway passed the preliminary feasibility study in July 2025. Reduced travel costs and the connection of metropolitan railways are transforming the living areas of these three regions from independent urban systems into continuous commuting and school zones. However, public runtime data connecting origins and destinations, transfers, travel times, jobs, and residential mobility across the entire Bu-Ul-Gyeong region using the same criteria has not been verified. If metropolitan transportation investments for 2026–2028 are determined based on regional demand data, the discrepancy between actual living areas and facility placement will become entrenched.  Although Bu-Ul-Gyeong is connected as a living area, it is still judged as a separated region based on living area data.

The same applies to industrial connectivity. Busan’s ports and logistics, Ulsan’s automotive, shipbuilding, and petrochemical industries, and Gyeongnam’s machinery, defense, aerospace, and shipbuilding sectors have formed supply chains where companies, manpower, and logistics intersect; the 2026 Bu-Ul-Gyeong Metropolitan Eum Job Fair was also designed based on the premise of a joint labor market for shipbuilding, automotive, and machinery. The industrial structure has shifted from a parallel arrangement of key regional industries to an interdependent production network. Conversely, a super-regional industrial graph connecting inter-company supply relationships, cargo volumes, labor supply and demand, and the propagation of production disruptions based on the same company or workplace is not found in the publicly available evidence. If Industrial AX and supply chain restructuring are pursued at the individual city and provincial level over the next two to three years, duplicate support for the same corporate groups and supply chain gaps will occur simultaneously.  The Bu-Ul-Gyeong region operates as a single industrial zone, but it is structured in a way that it is not observed as a single Industrial Intelligence.

The 2024 Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (BUK) Super-regional Development Implementation Plan presented three major strategies, 12 core tasks, and 57 detailed tasks, along with a total project budget of 1.0544 trillion won. The scope of joint projects was expanded to include transportation, industry, culture, and talent, followed by the strengthening of the Super-regional Economic Alliance agreement and the establishment of a joint implementation plan in 2026. However, the central units of the publicly available data are projects, budgets, and schedules, and a structure linking actual reach rates within a one-hour living zone, metropolitan employment rates, supply chain stability, utilization of medical services outside the region, and joint disaster response times into a single outcome has not been confirmed. If joint projects for the 2026–2029 period are concluded based on facility completions and event performance records, it becomes difficult to determine retrospectively whether functional zones have been integrated.  The current stage is judged to be characterized not by the diffusion of joint policies, but by the incompleteness of the joint performance measurement system.

Golden Time Thesis — Although the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region was already connected as an industrial and living area prior to administrative integration, the runtime for the three regions to analyze identical movement, business, talent, medical, and disaster events using a single piece of evidence has not been confirmed. If data boundaries are maintained between 2026 and 2028, even if super-regional infrastructure is connected, policy decisions will remain divided into three branches.

Busan is a hub for ports, logistics, finance, and services; Ulsan is a production base for automobiles, shipbuilding, and petrochemicals; and Gyeongnam is a cluster of machinery, defense, aerospace, shipbuilding, and parts companies. The fact that the 2026 Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Joint Job Fair designated the shipbuilding, automotive, and machinery sectors as a joint recruitment market demonstrates that the three industrial structures have shifted from independent specialized industries to a shared workforce and supply chain structure. However, a common baseline for the region—linking workers, businesses, hiring, wages, and commuting by workplace—has not been identified. If labor shortages by industry expand within two to three years, it is highly likely that the three regions will calculate shortages in the same occupations as separate demands.  While the industrial scale of the region can be aggregated, it is determined that the interdependence of the industrial zones is not yet directly measurable.

In the second quarter of 2025, internal migration within the Southeast region recorded a net inflow of 1,180 people in Gyeongnam, a net outflow of 994 in Busan, and a net outflow of 186 in Ulsan. This demonstrates that the population changes in these three regions are structured to be redistributed not only by births and deaths within each area but also by residential choices within the region. However, inflow and outflow statistics fail to explain commuting, schooling, consumption, and medical utilization, and a common identification system linking registered migration with daily movement has not been disclosed. If housing and transportation facilities for 2026–2028 are determined solely by regional population projections, actual demand in border areas will be underestimated or overcalculated.  It is determined that while the population of the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region is registered in the three areas, their daily lives are not fixed within these three administrative districts.

The Bu-Ul-Gyeong Mega-regional Development Plan has set targets of a 3% economic growth rate, a one-hour living zone, and a quality of life satisfaction score of 7.5. A structural shift is confirmed, in which the spatial unit of the policy has expanded from individual cities and provinces to a mega-regional area. However, the ratio of jobs, universities, hospitals, and cultural facilities accessible within one hour, as well as disparities among cities, counties, and districts, are not verified through jointly disclosed indicators. Even after railway and road projects proceed in two to three years, it will be impossible to determine whether the targets have been achieved and to assess the distribution of benefits by region without a consistent baseline.  Currently, the scale of Bu-Ul-Gyeong is expressed by the sum of population and GRDP, but the scale of the functional zone is determined to be unmeasured.

The 2023 Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (BUK) Mega-regional Development Plan presented 69 practical tasks, while the 2024 implementation plan consisted of 57 detailed tasks and a budget of 1.0544 trillion won. Mega-regional cooperation has shifted from the declaration stage to an execution system based on budget and project units. However, the number of tasks and project costs serve as inputs for the formation of a shared living area, not actual outcomes such as reduced travel time, increased regional employment, or expanded corporate transactions. Once project execution rates accumulate for the 2026–2028 period, the causal relationship between policy inputs and changes in functional areas will be separated.  What has been confirmed so far is the aggregation of mega-regional projects, not the completion of the mega-regional data ecosystem.

The elimination of inter-regional transfer fares between Busan, Gimhae, and Yangsan is expected to save approximately 5.5 billion won in transportation costs annually and reduce the monthly burden for regular users by more than 20,000 won. This represents a transformation of a mobility structure, where additional costs were incurred when crossing administrative boundaries, into a single fare zone. However, the public outcomes linking projected savings with actual usage increases, expansion of commuting zones, reduced reliance on private cars, and regional benefits are still in the early stages of accumulation. If transfer policies for other routes are designed within two to three years without verifying usage patterns, the effects of fare integration and railway investment will not be separated.  While the integration of the transfer system has been confirmed, it is determined that the practical demonstration of fare zone integration has not yet been completed.

Joint job fairs and industrial cooperation projects connect job seekers with companies in the three regions. The spatial scope of recruitment events has expanded from individual city and provincial labor markets to the Bu-Ul-Gyeong joint market. However, there is no verifiable evidence using a common regional job seeker ID to track whether the number of participants, consultations, and on-site interviews led to actual employment, retention, commuting, or wage increases. Even if the events are repeated between 2026 and 2028, if employment outcomes are separated, the formation of a joint labor market is replaced by the scale of the event.  It is currently assessed that while the Bu-Ul-Gyeong talent policy has reached a common point of contact, it has not yet expanded to the runtime of a joint labor market.

The logistics flow at Busan Port, production in Ulsan Industrial Complexes, and parts supply from manufacturing companies in Gyeongnam are structured such that disruptions in one region have a chain reaction impacting the productivity and exports of other regions. The unit of industrial competition has shifted from individual factories or industrial complexes to networks of supply chains, ports, energy, and manpower. However, a supply chain map linking the corporate registration numbers, business sites, delivery relationships, transportation, inventory, and imports/exports of the three regions based on the same criteria has not been disclosed. Consequently, if fluctuations in global demand or production cuts by key companies occur over the next two to three years, the regions where the shock propagates cannot be identified in advance. Although  the structural changes in the Bu-Ul-Gyeong industrial zone have become networked, administrative observation units are still determined based on individual projects.

The expansion of metropolitan railway, public transportation transfer, and automobile mobility data is reorganizing residents' living radius based on travel time rather than administrative boundaries. The criteria for determining living areas are shifting from straight-line distances from residences to workplaces, schools, and hospitals to actual travel time and transfer resistance. However, mobility data for transportation cards, roads, railways, parking, and communications in the three regions are fragmented by institution and project, and no open joint model showing total movement within the same time period has been identified. If metropolitan railways and station area development proceed in parallel between 2026 and 2028, the current data fragmentation will be permanently fixed in land use and facility layout.  It is determined that while the Bu-Ul-Gyeong living area has shifted to a time-based model, policy data remains boundary-based.

AI, digital twin, and transportation big data platforms are being promoted in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, respectively. The foundation for data analysis has shifted from manual administration to platform-based administration. However, there is no confirmed public evidence that the platforms' geographical scope, metadata, update cycles, APIs, and standards for pseudonymizing individuals and companies are interconnected. As each platform is independently advanced over the next two to three years, technical integration costs and conflicts regarding data definitions will increase.  The current structural change is assessed as the parallel digitalization of the three regional platforms rather than super-regional integration.

The 2024 Super-Metropolitan Development Implementation Plan outlines industrial innovation foundations, spatial connectivity, and improvement of living conditions as its three major strategies. A shift is observed where the scope of joint response has expanded from individual transportation projects to include industry, talent, culture, and daily life. Conversely, a common data architecture connecting these three strategies based on the same region, population, and corporate entities is not found in the public plan. If separate systems are established for each project between 2026 and 2028, industrial performance and living area performance will be separated even within the joint plan.  It is determined that the Bu-Ul-Gyeong response has reached the Portfolio level but has not yet reached the Portfolio Intelligence level.

Ulsan operates its own data infrastructure, including a Big Data Center, a transportation big data platform, a smart city data hub, and a carbon-neutral digital twin, while Busan also releases its Big-Data Wave and Busan statistics. Regional data production capabilities have expanded from static statistics to urban operational data. However, common data dictionaries, ultra-regional APIs, joint quality control, and update cycle agreements that run through the platforms of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam are not confirmed in the public evidence. If the data models of individual systems become entrenched within two to three years, it is highly likely that connectivity will remain limited to simple file exchange.  Currently, the response to AX focuses on expanding internal regional analysis infrastructure, and the expansion of an ultra-regional joint operation system is not confirmed.

The strengthening of the Transregional Economic Alliance agreement and the preparation of a joint implementation plan for 2026 demonstrate that the cooperation framework is shifting from single-year projects to continuous operations. However, the continued existence of the agreement and the continuity of joint data are not identical, and a common project ID and outcome record system that is maintained despite organizational and budgetary changes has not been identified. If organizational or project priorities change between 2026 and 2028, the baseline of past projects and subsequent outcomes may be severed. While  the institutional continuity of the current response has been strengthened, the transcendence of data across fiscal years and policy cycles is deemed unconfirmed.

A functional metropolitan area is defined by the actual flow of commuting, schooling, business transactions, and service utilization. The Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (BUK) region is also accumulating evidence of its functional area through integrated transfers, metropolitan railways, joint recruitment, and linked industries. However, an official Functional Urban Area calculated using the same method for the entire BUK region—covering commuting, employment, and medical zones—is not found in publicly available data. Comparing the aggregated administrative district data over a period of two to three years with that of international metropolitan areas distorts the region's actual density and accessibility.  It is determined that while the BUK region possesses the substance of a functional metropolitan area, it lacks a common unit of measurement for comparison.

In Korea, metropolitan areas function as a single market transcending administrative boundaries through wide-area transportation, commuting, housing, and corporate locations, and numerous national statistics are accumulated at the metropolitan level. Although the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region also possesses high industrial linkages, the scope in which the combined total of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam is regularly announced as actual super-regional outcomes is limited. Differences in comparison units create differences in observational resolution rather than a lack of assets. In the competition for investment priorities for 2026–2028, if joint demand and ripple effects cannot be numerically proven, only the individual scales of the three regions will be evaluated.  The relative inferiority of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region is determined not by the absence of functional spheres, but by the discontinuity of evidence proving those functional spheres.

While mobility within Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon is perceived as a single metropolitan issue, mobility within Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam is often separated into regional population inflows and outflows. There is a comparative asymmetry where the same inter-regional movement is recorded as commuter expansion in the metropolitan area, but as regional population fluctuations in the southeastern region. Regular runtimes that simultaneously analyze internal mobility within the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region and outflows to the metropolitan area are limited. If this distinction is maintained for two to three years, internal regional redistribution and the loss of competitiveness for the entire region become intertwined.  Currently, the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region is assessed as having a low level of readiness to analyze internal mobility and external outflows separately.

In the second quarter of 2025, internal migration within the Southeast region showed an increase of 1,180 people in Gyeongnam, a decrease of 994 in Busan, and a decrease of 186 in Ulsan; meanwhile, the entire Southeast region recorded a net outflow of 5,691 people during the same quarter. Connecting these three figures reveals a dual structure where population is redistributed within the region, yet the entire region experiences a net outflow. However, the factors of internal movers—such as access to jobs, housing costs, education, and transportation—and the reasons for the departure of those moving to the Seoul metropolitan area are not linked within the same data. If certain regions are identified as growth areas based solely on net internal inflows from 2026 to 2028, the overall loss of talent across the region is obscured.  The population issue of the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region is determined not by a matter of regional victory or defeat, but by the simultaneous progression of internal redistribution and external net outflow.

The estimated annual savings from making transfers free between Busan, Gimhae, and Yangsan are approximately 5.5 billion won, with monthly savings for regular users projected to exceed 20,000 won. Linking these savings with usage volume allows for the measurement of the scale of mobility costs imposed on residents by administrative boundaries. However, it remains unconfirmed whether these cost savings have led to increased commuting, greater employment choices, shifts in consumption patterns, or a decrease in private car usage. If only fare indicators are managed over the next two to three years, the actual outcome of expanding living areas will not remain.  While fare integration serves as evidence of lowering barriers to living areas, it is not the ultimate evidence of living area integration.

When linking the 2024 super-regional implementation plan, worth 1.0544 trillion won, with 57 detailed tasks, the average project cost per task is calculated, but it does not determine whether inter-regional connectivity has been strengthened. A management structure centered on budget size and the number of tasks has reinforced the execution structure of facilities, events, and research services. Without a common Outcome ID, it is impossible to determine the impact of transportation improvements in one project on the employment and housing outcomes of another project. When the projects for 2026–2028 conclude, only individual execution rates, rather than linkage effects, remain as official outcomes.  It is determined that while the super-regional budget exists, the super-regional performance accounts cannot be verified.

Linking joint recruitment events with net youth outflows by region reveals the possibility that even if companies exist within the region, conditions regarding major, job function, wages, housing, and commuting may not align. The labor market issue shifts from a shortage of companies to a failure to connect job seekers with employment conditions. However, there is no confirmed evidence tracking university graduates, applied companies, hiring, tenure, and residences at the regional level. If the demand for manufacturing AX personnel increases within two to three years, talent shortages and job mismatches could expand simultaneously. The  talent gap in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region is attributed to a disconnect in joint labor market data rather than the total workforce volume.

The first gap is the absence of a common spatial unit . While metropolitan railways and integrated transfers have expanded the actual movement axes, statistics maintain city, provincial, city, county, and district boundaries as the basic unit. Transportation zones have shifted to time-distance, but analysis zones remain based on administrative area. As the placement of station areas, industrial complexes, and housing proceeds between 2026 and 2028, errors in measurement units will become fixed within the spatial structure.  Spatial Readiness in the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region is judged to lag behind in the measurement of functional zones compared to physical connectivity.

The second gap is the absence of a common identification system for companies, workplaces, and supply chains . While shipbuilding, automotive, and machinery companies operate across these three regions, support programs are managed by location and specific business sector. Public graphs linking investment, employment, delivery, logistics, and support details for the same group of companies are not available. As Industrial AX support expands over two to three years, overlapping support and supply chain blind spots accumulate.  It is determined that there is a discrepancy between the regional scope of industrial policy and the actual scope of the industrial network.

The third gap is the disconnect in living outcomes . While transfer, railway, employment, medical, and cultural projects all alter residents' living radius, their performance indicators are separated. The pseudonymized data linkage structure used to verify whether a reduction in a resident's travel time led to changes in access to employment, housing, and medical care has not been disclosed. Even if joint projects are expanded between 2026 and 2028, if no changes remain at the resident level, the integration of living zones is replaced by a list of facilities.  Currently, the final evaluation unit of the Bu-Ul-Gyeong joint policy is judged to have failed to reach resident outcomes.

The fourth gap is the time lag in joint decision-making . Budgets, ordinances, projects, and platforms in each region operate on different schedules and update cycles. No structure has been identified where the three regions assess the same industrial crisis or traffic congestion on the same reference date. If the time lag between the occurrence of a shock and joint assessment persists for the next two to three years, the response will begin only after a chain of crises has occurred.  The greatest risk for the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region is determined to be the structural mismatch in assessment timing among the three regions, rather than a lack of data.

The Busan-Gimhae Light Rail, road networks, ports and industrial complexes, and the Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan metropolitan railway plan serve as the physical foundation connecting functional zones. The movement axis is expanding from a Busan-centered radial structure to a continuous axis extending from Busan to Gimhae to Yangsan to Ulsan. However, there is no publicly available evidence confirming total traffic volume, transfer resistance, congestion, and industrial shift times observed in a single model. If demand discrepancies are identified following the determination of routes and station areas between 2026 and 2028, spatial reallocation costs will skyrocket.  Physical connectivity readiness is assessed as being in the progress stage, while joint demand reading readiness is assessed as being in the unconfirmed stage.

The infrastructure for universities, vocational education, and corporate training in the shipbuilding, automotive, machinery, and logistics sectors is distributed across three regions. The talent supply base is expanding from a single-region education system to a regional job market. However, data linking educational curricula, graduates, qualifications, recruitment, wages, and length of service based on common criteria has not been identified. If industrial AX jobs become more segmented within two to three years, the time lag between regional workforce planning and actual corporate demand will widen.  Talent infrastructure is assessed as being dispersed, while talent intelligence is determined to be fragmented.

Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam each possess statistical, public data, and urban data systems, respectively. While data production infrastructure exists, no super-regional layer operating with identical metadata, common IDs, quality control, and update cycles has been identified. The structure is such that the advancement of individual platforms proceeds prior to data integration. If independent system overhauls are repeated between 2026 and 2028, the interoperability gap will accumulate as technical debt.  Data Readiness is assessed as above average within the region, but low for super-regional joint operation.

Transregional economic alliances and joint implementation plans provide an institutional foundation for consultation and project coordination. Cooperation has shifted from one-time declarations to iterative planning. However, an open operating system stipulating data liability, joint quality standards, error correction, pseudonymization of personal information, and retention after project completion has not been identified. As cooperative projects increase over the next two to three years, the ambiguity regarding data liability will also expand simultaneously.  Institutional readiness is assessed prior to the joint project organization stage and the joint evidence management stage.

The elimination of inter-regional transfer fares between Busan, Gimhae, and Yangsan directly eliminated the additional charges residents previously bore when crossing administrative boundaries. This is a case where the effect of a joint policy translated from a plan into actual transportation costs for users. However, the scope of application does not cover the entire Bu-Ul-Gyeong region, and many areas in Ulsan and Gyeongnam are not included under the same conditions. If partial regional integration is maintained for two to three years, differences in travel costs by boundary will become entrenched, even within the same super-regional living area.  While the perceived spread among residents is confirmed along the Busan-Gimhae-Yangsan axis, it is not confirmed to extend across the entire Bu-Ul-Gyeong region.

The Bu-Ul-Gyeong Joint Job Fair provides job seekers in each region with simultaneous recruitment information from companies in the three areas. The points of contact between companies and job seekers have expanded to the regional level. However, actual hiring rates, 6- and 12-month retention rates, inter-regional commuting, migration trends, and wage changes are not verified through publicly available joint indicators. Even if the joint event is expanded between 2026 and 2028, if no employment outcomes remain, the expansion of resident participation is misjudged based solely on the number of attendees.  While the expansion of labor market accessibility is confirmed, the expansion of employment outcomes is deemed unconfirmed.

SMEs are integrated into the supply chains of the shipbuilding, automotive, and machinery industries, conducting transactions across regional boundaries. Supply chain shocks also spread to partner companies regardless of the location of the prime contractor. However, public evidence linking beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of mega-regional projects, delivery stages, productivity, and employment is not available. If AX initiatives centered on large enterprises proceed for two to three years, disparities among lower-tier supply chain companies may be obscured by regional statistics.  While corporate diffusion occurs within industrial networks, it is determined that the depth of policy diffusion remains unmeasurable.

While the Busan-Gimhae-Yangsan axis functions with integrated transfers and fares for light rail, buses, and urban railways, western Gyeongnam, the southern coast, and inland Gyeongnam have failed to secure the same level of daily mobility connectivity. The interior of the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region is being reorganized not into a single homogeneous living zone, but into multiple zones with varying levels of connectivity. However, there are no publicly available indicators comparing jobs and essential services accessible within 30 or 60 minutes by city, county, or district in the same manner. If only average travel times for 2026–2028 are managed, the deterioration of accessibility in outer areas is masked by the regional average. Consequently,  the integration of the Bu-Ul-Gyeong living zone is assessed as being asymmetrical across the axes.

The Ulsan–Yangsan–Busan Eastern Axis combines the automotive, petrochemical, and service industries with residential mobility, while the Busan–Gimhae–Changwon Axis combines manufacturing, logistics, and commuting. The way industry and daily life are connected differs by axis. However, regional maps overlapping commuting, industrial transactions, and residential mobility have not been identified. If the same policy is applied to all regions over the next two to three years, the demand difference between the manufacturing-commuting axis and the service-living axis will be omitted.  The Bu-Ul-Gyeong region is judged to be a multi-nucleated interconnected zone rather than a single-central zone, and the data is determined not to adequately reflect this difference.

Busan Port, Ulsan Industrial Complex, Changwon National Industrial Complex, and Geoje Shipyard are national industrial hubs, but the surrounding living services and conditions for talent influx are not identical. There is a simultaneous concentration of production bases and a gap in settlement conditions. There is no super-regional comparative data linking industrial productivity with commuting time, housing costs, and access to medical and educational services. If investment in production facilities is separated from settlement data for two to three years, labor shortages become entrenched as a constraint factor before equipment shortages.  It is determined that the competitiveness of industrial hubs and the sustainability of living areas are spatially mismatched.

The Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan metropolitan railway passed the preliminary feasibility study in 2025, and the Busan-Gimhae-Yangsan route implemented free transfers in the same year. The period from 2026 to 2028 is when the planned network will materialize into actual routes, stations, transfers, and operational systems. However, the shared travel baseline and living area outcomes for comparing the pre- and post-investment phases have not yet been confirmed. If data errors are revealed after the facility layout is finalized, the possibility of modifying the routes and station areas decreases sharply. The  "Golden Time" for transportation data is determined to be prior to spatial determination, rather than after completion.

The shipbuilding, automotive, and machinery industries are simultaneously undergoing automation, AI, and eco-friendly transitions, as well as changes in workforce structure. Joint recruitment and industrial cooperation in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region demonstrate that the scope of the labor market has already become super-regional. However, a joint runtime linking supply, wages, commuting, and educational outcomes by job function has not yet been identified. Once individual company-specific AX investments are completed within two to three years, the mismatch between required job functions and existing educational curricula will become entrenched as a recruitment crisis.  The "Golden Time" for industrial and talent data is determined to be during the transition period already underway, rather than prior to the formation of a joint job market.

The 57 detailed tasks and a scale of 1.0544 trillion won in the 2024 implementation plan demonstrate that joint projects have moved beyond the experimental stage. The increase in the number of projects also exacerbates discrepancies between data definitions and performance indicators. Common project IDs and outcome standards are not found in publicly available data. Once projects spanning multiple fiscal years from 2026 to 2028 conclude, it will become difficult to integrate different indicators retrospectively.  The current two to three years are assessed as a period during which data fragmentation in the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region becomes entrenched through institutional channels rather than being a technical issue.

12-1. Golden Time Application Case in Basic Local Governments ① — Gimhae City

With the implementation of free intercity transfer fares between Busan, Gimhae, and Yangsan in September 2025, Gimhae has become a direct beneficiary of the partial integrated living zone connecting Busan and Gyeongnam. Crossing administrative boundaries has transformed from a section incurring additional charges into a daily transfer section. However, there is no publicly available outcome linking how Gimhae residents' movements for commuting, schooling, medical care, and consumption in Busan changed before and after the free fare implementation. If only the increase in usage is recorded for the period 2026–2028, it cannot be determined whether the expansion of Gimhae's living zone has led to changes in employment and settlement.  Although Gimhae is a leading region where the integration of the Bu-Ul-Gyeong living zone has actually occurred, the data verification of the integration's effects is considered to be in the early stages.

Manufacturing companies in Gimhae are connected to Busan Port, Changwon's manufacturing sector, and Busan's service market. Transfer integration has brought about structural changes that simultaneously lower the costs of industrial commuting and daily mobility. However, data combining workers' residences, workplaces, and travel times with corporate hiring and turnover rates has not been verified. If transportation benefits and industrial workforce outcomes are separated over the next two to three years, Gimhae's actual super-regional benefits will be measured as being smaller than the number of transportation trips.  Gimhae's "Golden Time" is determined to lie in the gap in outcomes following the connection, rather than in the lack of connectivity networks.

12-2. Golden Time Application Cases in Basic Local Governments ② — Yangsan City

Yangsan is an area subject to the Busan-Gimhae-Yangsan transfer integration and serves as the central axis of the Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan metropolitan railway plan. The structure in which the Busan living area and the Ulsan industrial area intersect in Yangsan is being strengthened. However, there is no evidence to confirm that the origin, workplace, housing, education, and medical utilization of the population passing through or settling in Yangsan are linked into a single living area data set. Once the railway and station area plans for 2026–2028 are finalized, incorrectly calculated commuting and housing demands will remain as long-term spatial structures. Although Yangsan is the connecting point of the single Bu-Ul-Gyeong living area, it is determined to be the region where data disconnection among the three regions accumulates most directly.

Yangsan's position is transforming from a mere midpoint into a nodal point for regional transfers, residential use, and industrial commuting. The expansion of the transportation network extends bidirectional living zones rather than unidirectional dependent zones oriented toward either Busan or Ulsan. However, a shared baseline combining bidirectional demand by time of day, commuting by occupation, and housing burdens around train stations has not yet been identified. If investment remains fixed within two to three years based on the premise of unidirectional demand, the mismatch between actual multidirectional movement and facility capacity will become irreversible.  Yangsan's "Golden Time" is determined not by whether or not a railway is constructed, but by the time it takes to accurately assess its bidirectional living zones.

If the three regions assess investment and corporate support based on separate industrial data, the same supply chain is observed as being divided into three industries. While the flow of prime contractors, subcontractors, logistics, and exports within the supply chain is interconnected, policy data is separated by location. Consequently, joint evidence for the early detection of production disruption propagation and duplicate support is not verified. If industrial AX investments for 2026–2028 are fixed within regional systems, supply chain readjustment costs will increase.  Loss risk is assessed based on the time required to analyze the entire industrial network rather than individual project costs.

If metropolitan railway, transfer, and station area developments are pursued using different demand models, a single movement is counted as a separate movement by each of the three regions. While facility investment is maintained over the long term, demand data is highly likely to remain fixed at the time of project approval. The absence of a common baseline makes it difficult to distinguish between overcapacity and undercapacity early on. When construction begins in earnest two to three years later, costs for modifying routes, capacities, and transfer designs rise sharply.  The risk of loss is determined by the irreversibility of incorrect demand assessments rather than delays in transportation projects.

Even when young people and skilled workers move between Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, each region records outflows and inflows separately. Unless the difference between internal regional redistribution and the exodus to the metropolitan area is separated, the actual size of the shared talent market cannot be verified. The runtime connecting graduation, employment, tenure, and residential mobility has not been disclosed. If this gap persists during the manufacturing job transition period of 2026–2028, talent policy will become entrenched in the number of trainees and event participants.  The risk of loss is assessed not only by the decrease in the number of young people but also by the loss of the ability to identify where and why talent is leaving.

The Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region already possesses connection evidence in the form of joint planning, integrated transfers, metropolitan railways, and joint recruitment. This demonstrates that super-regional cooperation is not a new concept but has entered the actual operational phase. However, these pieces of evidence are not yet connected based on the same criteria regarding residents, businesses, spaces, or projects. If projects increase without connection between 2026 and 2028, the joint assets will revert to the individual performance of the three regions.  The currently secured opportunity is determined not by the number of new projects, but by the time required to interpret the already generated connection effects as joint outcomes.

Busan's ports and services, Ulsan's large-scale manufacturing, and Gyeongnam's parts, machinery, and shipbuilding bases are irreplaceable assets. The combination of these three assets creates a structure that enhances supply chain completeness and industrial diversity rather than simply aggregating their scales. However, due to the lack of a common baseline linking transaction, logistics, workforce, energy, and export data, the combined effect remains at the level of estimation. If investments in industrial transformation are separated within two to three years, these complementary assets will be fragmented again into region-specific specialized projects.  Currently, Opportunity is assessed not as a declaration of industrial integration, but as a phase that confirms existing interdependence into measurable competitiveness.

Regions like Gimhae and Yangsan, where the integration of living zones first appears at the boundaries, provide leading signals for super-regional changes. This structure allows for changes in transfer usage, residential mobility, commuting, and employment to occur more rapidly than in other regions. However, a regular evidence chain reflecting changes in boundary areas into overall decision-making in the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region has not been identified. If these leading signals remain only in local statistics for the next two to three years, changes across the entire region will be recognized belatedly.  Currently, Opportunity is assessed as the timeframe during which boundary areas can be interpreted as leading indicators of super-regional structural changes, without treating them as exceptions.

Mega-region AX Runtime

Movement of Residents, Businesses, and Logistics → Common ID, Spatial, and Temporal Criteria → Detection of Functional Rights → Regional Gaps → 2–3 Year Risk Signals → Joint Assessment → Execution → Actual Outcome → Reassessment

Functional Mega-region + Data Fragmentation Risk

The Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region is already one as an industrial and living zone.

The Bu-Ul-Gyeong region still has three in terms of data rights and decision-making power.

The current risk is not the absence of cooperative projects, but rather a structure in which the same incident is assessed by three regions using different standards and timelines.

The current opportunity lies not in the name of administrative integration, but in accumulating common evidence across industry, mobility, talent, healthcare, and disasters within a single runtime.

The final assessment is Functional Mega-region + Data Fragmentation Risk.

1. Commuting and school travel OD between all cities, counties, and districts in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam
2. Population passing through boundaries by time period
3. Number of jobs accessible within 30, 60, or 90 minutes
4. Number of regional transfer users and frequency of use
5. Changes in actual transportation costs before and after the introduction of free transfers
6. Changes in private car usage before and after the introduction of free transfers
7. Busan–Yangsan–Ulsan Metropolitan Railway Forecast and Actual Demand
8. Proportion of commuting and school travel purposes by railway station
9. Internal Inflow and Outflow of Bu-Ul-Gyeong and Net Outflow to the Capital Region
10. Changes in migrants' access to employment, housing costs, and education
11. Worker movement between workplaces and regions by industry
12. Recruitment ratios by job function in shipbuilding, automotive, and machinery
13. Employment rate of university graduates in the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region
14. 6-month and 12-month retention rates of employed workers in the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region
15. Distribution of occupations and wages of inter-regional commuters
16. Connecting prime contractors with subcontractors between companies
17. Overlap rate of identical companies and supply chains in regional industrial support
18. Time of inter-regional transmission of production disruptions at key companies
19. Cargo transit time between Busan Port and industrial complexes
20. Industrial logistics bottlenecks and alternative route utilization rates
21. Residents' utilization rate of outpatient and inpatient services across city and provincial boundaries
22. Inter-regional transfer time for emergency patients
23. Joint Response Time for Industrial and Climate Disasters
24. Common ID assignment rate by mega-regional project
25. Joint Project Budget → Execution → Outcome Connection Rate

Data GAP: In the publicly available evidence, a joint Bu-Ul-Gyeong runtime connecting resident movement → use of jobs, education, and medical services; company location → supply relationships → logistics → employment; and mega-regional projects → actual living area outcomes with the same ID and timeline is not confirmed.

Runtime Chain

Movement, Transaction, Usage → Formation of Functional Zones → Shared Data → GAP Detection → Time Risk → Joint Decision → Transportation, Industry, and Living Outcomes → Regional Competitiveness

Source · Verification

• Busan Metropolitan City Establishes Bu-Ul-Gyeong Super-regional Development Plan
• Busan Metropolitan City, 2024 Bu-Ul-Gyeong Super-regional Development Implementation Plan
• Busan Metropolitan City Makes Busan-Gimhae-Yangsan Intercity Transfer Fare Free
• Busan Metropolitan City Passes Preliminary Feasibility Study for Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan Metropolitan Railway
• Statistics Korea, Southeast Region Economic Trends Q1 2025
• Statistics Korea, Southeast Region Economic Trends Q2 2025
• Ulsan Metropolitan City, Current Status of Big Data and Smart City Data Base
• Ulsan Metropolitan City, 2026 Bu-Ul-Gyeong Metropolitan Eum Job Fair
• Busan Metropolitan Council Meeting Minutes Regarding the Bu-Ul-Gyeong Super-regional Economic Alliance Agreement

Structural insights remaining from this analysis

The true nature of a super-regional area is not the sum of the sizes of three regions. Rather, it is the structure in which the causes and consequences of events occurring in one region are observed in another. Changes in Ulsan's production are reflected in the sales of partner companies in Gyeongnam and the cargo volume at Busan Port, while Busan's jobs and medical services are reflected in the movement of residents in Gimhae and Yangsan.

In this structure, data by administrative boundary breaks a single event into three incomplete phenomena. If decreases in production, freight volume, and changes in commuting are recorded as separate statistics for different regions, the common cause disappears, leaving only regional results. Data fragmentation is not a lack of information, but a structure that eliminates causal relationships within the same event.

Therefore, viewing the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region as a single industrial and living area is not merely a matter of aggregating the statistics of the three areas. It involves analyzing the entire process of an event moving along residents, businesses, logistics, and services on a single timeline. Without this connection, even if administrative cooperation increases, the actual functioning of the super-regional area cannot ultimately be determined.

Golden Time Thesis — A super-regional area is not created by agreement, but exists when three regions interpret the same event as a single piece of evidence. The years 2026–2028 for the Bu-Ul-Gyeong region are not a time to create a new living area, but the final design phase to end the structure in which an already unified living area continues to be misjudged due to three data boundaries.