I. Macroeconomic Environment and Trade Risk Analysis

For the data center and cloud industries, digital trade provisions and data transfer regulations in FTAs ​​are key variables.
The global cloud market is projected to grow by an average of 10% annually (to $1.5 trillion) between 2025 and 2026, and new agreements such as the DEPA and IPEF are expanding, encompassing data sovereignty, AI regulations, and cybersecurity
. Korea explicitly addresses data transfer and digital services in its Korea-EU and Korea-US FTAs, and cloud localization, GDPR, and RE100 power procurement directly impact future export competitiveness.
 

Risk factors

2025-2026 Outlook

Influence (1~5)

Implications

Data transfer restrictionsGDPR and China's CSL Continue to Strengthen5Standardization of norms through DEPA and IPEF is necessary.
Energy Costs/RE100Expanding power supply and carbon emissions regulations4Establishment of PUE and carbon reduction certification
Cybersecurity and Personal InformationStrengthening ISO27001 and SOC2 requirements5Need to secure international certification in parallel
Digital Tax (DST)Continued imposition of independence by country3Double taxation risk until OECD agreement
AI computation demandHPC and GPU investment surges3Eco-friendly data center competitiveness is important.
Ⅱ. FTA Utilization Rate and Corporate Practice Statistics

Data centers and cloud computing are subject to FTAs, focusing on digital services rather than traditional tariff items .
The DEPA, Korea-EU, and IPEF agreements provide practical benefits in areas such as data transfer, e-commerce, mutual recognition of security certifications, and access to procurement .

field

FTA applicability

Major challenges

Management Points

Cloud servicesData norms within DEPA and IPEFDifferences in personal information laws by countryParallel GDPR and CBPR certification
IDC construction and operationUtilizing CEPA and Procurement ChaptersRE100·Environmental Impact AssessmentESG·RE100 Procurement Standardization
SaaS·AI servicesKorea-EU·DEPATax and Data TransferUtilizing international tax consultative bodies
Security and Authentication ServicesKorea-US-IPEFMutual recognition discrepancyISO27001·SOC2·GDPR compliance
III. Comparison Matrix of Regulations and Non-Tariffs by Country

Cloud regulations vary across major markets, with differing data sovereignty and energy regulations.
Utilizing FTAs ​​can significantly reduce redundant costs related to power procurement, data transfer, and security certification.

market

Major regulations

Data transfer

Electricity and Carbon Policy

Comments

USAFree Transfer and CLOUD ActallowanceRE100 Private Sector-CenteredOpen Market, SaaS Expansion Advantage
EUGDPR·AI ActLimited, requires appropriatenessCBAM and energy taxPUE·LCA required
chinaCSL·Data Security ActDisallow or approveLocal power dependenceEstablishment of local DC is essential
japanCBPR·OECD standardsFree transferRelaxation of PUE standardsDEPA Partners Facilitate Mutual Recognition
UAEIncludes CEPA data provisionsLimited permissionRenewable Power IncentivesKorea-UAE CEPA Practical Cooperation Possible
Ⅳ. Impact of ESG, CBAM, and RE100

Data centers, as a high-power industry, are directly subject to strengthened ESG regulations.
The EU is expected to require a PUE of 1.2 or lower and a renewable energy ratio of at least 80% starting in 2026.

System/Issue

Core requirements

Influence (1~5)

react

RE100Mandatory 100% renewable electricity5PPA·ESS linked procurement
CBAMIndirect impact of ICT equipment3Supply Chain LCA Management
ESG procurementDisclosure of energy efficiency and emission indicators4Establishing an ESG reporting and carbon accounting system
Data Center Environment CertificationEU Code of Conduct4Maintain ISO50001·PUE 1.3 or lower
AI computing powerGPU computing power surge3Review of high-efficiency cooling and hydrogen power generation linkage
V. Investment and Supply Chain Transition Scenario

Korea: Building RE100-type data center clusters in the metropolitan area and Yeongnam region (Naver, Kakao, SKC&C).

EU: Rising energy costs drive demand for low-carbon IDCs.

UAE and Saudi Arabia: Fostering CEPA-based renewable energy data hubs.

ASEAN: Rapid increase in IDC construction in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

US: Expanding hyperscale and cloud-native services.

Ⅵ. AI-based 3-month export/import (services balance) forecast

Integrated analysis of AI news sentiment (α), global cloud CAPEX (β), and sector sentiment (λ).
The data center and cloud industries are expected to maintain moderate growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by increased investment in AI computing and RE100 .

variable

Δ(%) or exponent

analysis

ΔExport_now+3.1Increase in overseas cloud service exports
ΔImport_now+1.8Increased adoption of equipment and SaaS
ΔPrice_now+0.5Rising electricity costs and GPU prices
ΔSignal_now+0.040Positive news and strengthening investor sentiment
ΔFTAEffect+0.38Effects of DEPA and CEPA provisions
Forecast_3M+0.63A gradual upward trend continues for three months

Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice

VII. Policy Recommendations and System Improvement Roadmap

field

Suggestion

Executor

Expected effect

Data transfer standardsPromoting standardization within DEPA and IPEFTrade Headquarters and Ministry of Science and ICTMitigating international trade risks
RE100·Carbon ManagementExpanding PPA and ESS-based incentivesMinistry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Korea Electric Power CorporationReduce IDC operating costs
Cloud AuthenticationEstablishment of an integrated international security certification systemKISA·KCSStrengthening access to procurement markets
AI computation infrastructureSupport for low-power GPU and cooling innovationsMinistry of Science and ICT and Ministry of Trade, Industry and EnergyImproved power efficiency
Overseas expansionCEPA-based Middle East Data Hub CooperationKOTRA·Industrial Bank of KoreaExpanding export markets
Ⅷ. Summary of Conclusions

The data center and cloud industries continue to grow, driven by the FTA's digital trade, procurement, and ESG standards .

Forecast_3M: +0.63 — Reflecting the effects of DEPA and CEPA and RE100 power transition demand.

Recommended strategies: ① Unification of DEPA and IPEF standards ② Securing RE100 and ESG certification ③ Responding to global security certification and GDPR ④ Entering the Middle East and ASEAN IDC hub.