Petrochemicals and plastics (base oil, intermediates, and resins) are influenced by three variables: oil and naphtha prices, global inventory cycles, and environmental regulations
. While oil price volatility is expected to moderate between 2025 and 2026, pressure is expected to increase due to strengthening EU environmental and packaging regulations and the transition to recycling and bio-based products .
Risk factors | 2025-2026 Outlook | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naphtha/ethane spread | Gradual improvement (demand recovery, inventory normalization) | 4 | Restoring cost competitiveness and improving export margins |
| Chinese expansion/domestic demand replacement | Selective over-sustaining | 4 | General-purpose resin prices are under pressure, and a shift to higher-value-added products is needed. |
| EU environmental and packaging regulations | Increasing demand for recycled and bio-content | 5 | A portfolio of r-resin and bio-based products is essential. |
| Trade regulations (AD·Safeguard) | Expansion focused on emerging countries | 3 | HS detailed unit monitoring and FTA defense are necessary. |
| Exchange rate/logistics | Moderate volatility | 2 | CIF/FOB Optimization and Insurance Package Redesign |
General-purpose resins (e.g., PE, PP, PVC) benefit significantly from tariff reductions, as 0% or low-rate agreements
are common in major markets. However, non-tariff documentation and safety data sheet (SDS) requirements, such as REACH, CLP, and the Packaging Waste Directive , remain bottlenecks in practice. Intermediates (e.g., aromatics, olefins, glycols, glycerol), with remaining MFN discrepancies, will benefit significantly from FTAs and cumulative utilization .
Classification (example HS) | FTA/ITA applicability (trend) | Major challenges | Management Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE/PP (3901/3902) | Low-rate/tariff-free rates are common in the US, EU, and ASEAN. | REACH registration, classification and use documents | SDS and exposure scenario updates |
| PVC/PS (3904/3903) | MFN deviation by market | Regulation of plasticizers and residual substances | CLP Label and Alternative Substance Roadmap |
| PET/engineering resin (3907, etc.) | Classification varies depending on function and use | Proof of food contact and circulation content | r-PET·Bio-based certification |
| Aromatics and Olefins (2902, etc.) | MFN deviation exists | Precision classification and ingredient verification | Constant management of COA and test report |
While the US and EU generally have a 0% effective tariff rate for many items, chemical regulations, packaging, and recycling obligations pose substantial barriers.
Emerging economies have many products eligible for MFN, resulting in significant differences in price competitiveness through FTAs .
market | Representative HS (example) | MFN tariff (scope) | When FTA is applied (trend) | Non-tariff barriers (example) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 3901~3907 | Generally low rate | 0% high frequency | TSCA·Label·Safety Regulations | Functional and additive management |
| EU | 3901~3907, 2902 | Mixed 0~6% range | 0% majority | REACH/CLP·Packaging·Circular Economy | Increasing demand for r-content and LCA |
| china | 3901~3907 | Existence of items in the 6-10% range | Differentiation by agreement | CCC, Standards, and Industrial Policy | Pressure to replace domestic demand |
| ASEAN (Vietnam) | 3901~3907 | ~5% | RCEP/Bilateral FTA reduction | Certification and administrative procedures | Valid for cumulative use within the region |
Note: Actual tariff rates and requirements may vary depending on HS subheadings, additives, and intended use. We recommend checking actual measurements before customs clearance .
While the EU CBAM directly targets basic materials, it is highly likely to reflect costs indirectly through packaging, electricity, and raw materials (e.g., aluminum)
. Simultaneously, REACH (Registration/Evaluation/Authorization/Restriction), CLP (Classification/Labeling/Packaging), the Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive, and regulations on recycled and reclaimed materials content will be strengthened.
policy | Core requirements | Enforcement/Strengthening | Influence (1~5) | react |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REACH/CLP | Registration, SDS, Labeling, and SVHC Management | Constant renewal | 5 | SDS Data Lake and Alternative Materials Strategy |
| Packaging and Circular Economy | r-content/recycling obligation | Step-by-step upward adjustment | 4 | r-resin and bio-based portfolio |
| CBAM (linked) | Electricity and aluminum indirect costs | 2026~ | 3 | Building LCA and power mix data |
| Food Contact Regulations | FCM·NIAS Management | Always | 3 | Strengthening standard testing and supply chain traceability |
Korea: A R&D/production hub focused on high-value engineering resins and specialty products (high heat resistance, high transparency, and barriers).
US/EU: Localization of high-value-added resins for food contact, medical, and automotive electronics (regulatory compliance + customer proximity)
ASEAN: Conversion of General-Purpose Resin Compounding, Masterbatch, and Packaging Materials (Cost/Lead Time Optimization + RCEP Accumulation)
Middle East Linkage: Long-term raw material offtake + high-value-added Korean production line combination
AutoLoop results, which combine public statistics with news/policy sentiment (α), global sympathy (β), and sector sentiment (λ), show signs of short-term improvement
in petrochemicals and plastics due to inventory normalization and a product mix that complies with regulations .
variable | Δ(%) or exponent | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +2.0 | General purpose resins and specialty resins are increasing simultaneously. |
| ΔImport_now | +1.3 | Strengthening imports of intermediates/additives |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.4 | Reflecting resin price and maker premium |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.027 | Positive signal (regulatory compliance, demand consolidation+) |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.30 | MFN-FTA gap + cumulative effect |
| Forecast_3M | +0.47 | A gradual improvement is expected over the next three months. |
Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| REACH/CLP compliance | Building an integrated SDS, SVHC, and label platform | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Ministry of Environment, Association | Shortened certification costs and delivery times |
| r-resin expansion | r-PET, r-PP, and bio-based resin incentives | Ministry of Strategy and Finance and Ministry of Environment | Securing premium demand |
| FTA + Circular Economy Linkage | Country of origin preference based on recycling and LCA data | Customs Service and Trade Authorities | Duty-free + eco-friendly premium |
| digital trade | Standardizing Cross-Border Transfer of Product Data and SDS | Trade Negotiation Headquarters | Reduced document costs and faster customs clearance |
| Support for small and medium-sized enterprises | REACH Registration Joint Procurement and Consulting Voucher | KOTRA·Trade Association | Improving practical skills |
