The machinery, machine tool, and robotics industries are representative of industries simultaneously facing pressures from global supply chain transformation, the proliferation of AI and smart factories, and complex environmental and technological regulations such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). While demand for advanced processing equipment and industrial robots is expected to recover
in 2025-2026 , the gap in FTA utilization rates for core components (precision motors, sensors, controllers, etc.) will determine competitiveness among companies.
Risk factors | 2025-2026 Outlook | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slowing global demand | Delayed recovery in manufacturing and construction | 3 | Emerging countries need to strengthen their export and service-based revenue models. |
| Technology and ESG Regulation | Strengthening energy efficiency standards for smart factory equipment | 4 | CBAM·RE100 response required |
| Supply chain diversification | Decreasing trend in the proportion of components dependent on China | 4 | Cumulative expansion of Korea-EU-RCEP |
| Exchange rates and raw material prices | mild stabilization | 2 | Fixed price contracts and hedging in parallel |
| Robot demand structure | Growth centered on AI and logistics robots | 5 | A strategy for integrating machine tools and AI-powered robots is needed. |
While tariff reductions through FTAs remain significant, the diverse product categories and complex PSR standards in the machinery and machine tool industries mean that small and medium-sized manufacturers are relatively low in their practical use.
The FTA certified exporter registration rate stands at around 65-70% , and the trend is to increase utilization primarily through the substitution of Japanese and German parts and regional accumulation.
division | FTA application rate (%) | Major challenges | Response points |
|---|---|---|---|
| General-purpose machine tools (HS 8456~8466) | 86 | Origin determination and detailed function classification | Strengthening the pre-screening and HS code management system |
| Industrial robots (HS 8479, 8501, etc.) | 82 | Overseas procurement of controllers and sensors | PSR compliance and cumulative utilization in parallel |
| Equipment parts, motors, and controllers | 78 | Multinational component mixing | BOM/RVC tracking automation is needed. |
| small and medium-sized manufacturing machinery | 63 | Lack of human resources and document management | Utilization of the cooperative certified exporter system |
In most major markets, machinery and machine tools enjoy tariff-free benefits under FTAs.
However, new non-tariff barriers are emerging, including technical standards (TBT), safety certification, and export controls on robot-related algorithms and AI functions .
market | MFN(%) | FTA application (%) | difference | Major non-tariff barriers | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 2.5~5 | 0 | -2.5~-5 | EAR Technology Export Control and Product Safety Regulations | Precautions regarding controllers and AI robots |
| EU | 3~8 | 0 | -3~-8 | CE certification, Ecodesign, and CBAM indirect impacts | LCA-based certification required |
| china | 8~10 | 0~5 | -3~-8 | CCC certification and domestic industry protection | Parallel competition in quality and price |
| India and ASEAN | 10~25 | 0~10 | -10~-25 | Delays in certification, standards, and procedures | Actively utilize the cumulative effects of RCEP |
The machine tool and robotics industries, with their high use of carbon-intensive materials like steel and aluminum, are indirectly impacted by CBAM .
Furthermore, regulations on industrial facility energy efficiency (ISO 50001) , the disclosure of power consumption data , and the use of eco-friendly lubricants and coolants are being strengthened, particularly in the EU and Japan.
policy | applied area | Implementation period | Influence (1~5) | Response strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU CBAM | Indirect impacts on steel, aluminum, etc. | 2026 | 4 | Securing carbon data for the materials supply chain |
| Ecodesign | Application of energy efficiency standards | 2025~ | 4 | Introduction of high-efficiency motors and cooling systems |
| ISO50001 | Energy Management Certification | Always | 3 | Preparation for mandatory delivery and bidding requirements |
| RE100 | Manufacturing plant power requirements | Always | 2 | Activation of renewable energy purchase contracts |
Korea : Maintaining an R&D hub focused on high-precision machining and AI robot control software.
EU and US : Expansion of local assembly and high-value-added maintenance as a service (MaaS)
ASEAN : Focus on processing low- to mid-priced machine tools and robot parts
Japan and Taiwan : Continued technical cooperation on core components (motors and controllers)
According to AutoLoop analysis, exports in the machinery and robotics industry are showing a gradual recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025, with
increased exports of AI and robotics convergence products driving the improvement in ΔSignal.
variable | Δ(%) | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +2.2 | Machine tool and industrial robot exports rebound |
| ΔImport_now | +1.6 | Continued imports of controllers and sensors |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.4 | High-precision machining equipment and AI control unit prices are rising. |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.029 | Positive signals continue (policy and investment expectations) |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.31 | Tariff and technical standards relaxation effect |
| Forecast_3M | +0.50 (bullish forecast) | Expected to be moderate growth in the short term |
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support for FTA utilization | Establishment of a new PSR guide for machine tools exclusively for small and medium-sized enterprises. | Korea Customs Service and KOTRA | Utilization rate increased by 15 percentage points |
| Technical standards response | Building an integrated support platform for CE, CCC, and UL certifications | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy | Shortened export period |
| ESG response | Carbon Data and LCA Support Program | Ministry of Environment/Local Government | CBAM Risk Mitigation |
| Robot and AI Agreement | Including AI robots in digital trade provisions | Trade Negotiation Headquarters | Activation of technology trade |
| Human resource development | Training of FTA and ESG Combined Trade Experts | Trade Association/University | Strengthening the industrial base |
In the machinery, machine tool, and robot industries, non-tariff and technical standard response capabilities are more important than tariff benefits from FTAs .
Forecast_3M: +0.50 → Stable growth signal, accelerating structural shift centered on AI, ESG, and smart factories.
Future strategic directions:
① Establishment of a PSR/RVC automated management system
② Simplified support system for CE/CCC certification
③ Transition to ESG production based on RE100 and LCA
④ Expansion of digital trade and robotics technology agreements
