I. Macroeconomic environment and trade risks

division

Main contents

Basis and Source

Global economic and manufacturing cyclesManufacturing PMI shows a gradual recovery (average of 51.2 in Q3 2025)IMF, Bloomberg 2025.9
Demand for AI and semiconductor equipmentImports of advanced processing and packaging equipment continue to increase.KITA Semiconductor Equipment Report
Trade regulations and technology controlsExport controls on advanced manufacturing equipment to China continue, while material restrictions on Japan are eased.FT, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy
Energy and nuclear reactor-related importsIncreasing Procurement of SMR (Small Modular Reactor) Equipment and ComponentsReuters Energy 2025.8

Korea relies heavily on imports of HS84 (machinery) , and imports centered on advanced manufacturing equipment and industrial automation facilities are steadily increasing. In particular, imports of machinery focused on precision manufacturing and energy sectors,
such as AI semiconductors, SMRs, and eco-friendly processes, are structurally increasing.

Ⅱ. Analysis of Import Item Status and Characteristics

item

Details

Data source

HS code84 (Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers)UN Comtrade
Main detailed items8411 (turbine), 8419 (industrial boilers and heat exchangers), 8456 (laser processing machines), 8471 (computers), 8486 (semiconductor manufacturing equipment)Customs Service Import Statistics
Import volumeApproximately $113 billion in 2024 (Korea's third-largest import item)OEC / UN Comtrade
Total import shareabout 17.8%KCS (as of Q2 2025)

The HS84 product group is the core of the establishment of Korean manufacturing facilities and production lines, and is mostly comprised of ‘imported equipment for securing technological competitiveness.’

III. Characteristics of major importing countries and supply chains

ranking

importing country

specific gravity(%)

Main items

Features and Risks

1japan32Precision machine tools and measuring equipmentHigh technology and high price sensitivity
2USA24Semiconductor and AI manufacturing equipmentParallel regulations on China, high-priced items
3germany16Automation equipment and process robotsEngineering technology strength
4Netherlands11Exposure equipment and semiconductor equipmentGlobal monopoly level (ASML)
5china7General-purpose machinery and auxiliary equipmentReplaceable, quality deviation exists

The top five countries account for over 90% of imports , and the import structure of advanced machinery, particularly Japan, the United States, and the Netherlands , is maintained.

Ⅳ. Import volume and supply stability

division

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

Increase/decrease (%)

note

Semiconductor equipment (HS8486)USD 3.78 billionUSD 4.06 billion+7.4Expansion of advanced process CAPEX
General industrial machineryUSD 2.13 billionUSD 1.97 billion-7.5Impact of economic slowdown
Automation robots640 million USD720 million USD+12.5Increasing demand for human-replacement equipment
Boiler/heat treatment equipment480 million USD510 million USD+6.2Focus on improving industrial efficiency

Total machinery imports grew by +3.9% year-on-year , with industrial AI and automation equipment serving as the main driving force.

V. Unit price and price trends

division

2024 Q1

2024 Q2

2024 Q3

change(%)

analysis

Average unit price (USD/kg)17.818.518.9+2.2Increasing the proportion of high-precision equipment
semiconductor equipment1.42 M USD/unit1.53 M USD/unit1.57 M USD/unit+2.6Increase in imports of advanced technologies
industrial robots61 k USD/unit64 k USD/unit65 k USD/unit+1.5Demand for AI collaborative robots

Overall, the import structure centered on high-priced equipment is strengthening, reflecting continued investment to secure manufacturing competitiveness.

Ⅵ. Seasonal patterns

branch

characteristic

Import Volatility Index (0–1)

Q1Awaiting budget/CAPEX approval0.42
Q2Equipment order concentrator0.63
Q3Focus on semiconductor CAPEX and AI equipment imports0.78
Q4Equipment Inspection/Accounting Adjustment0.55

Imports of equipment and facilities are concentrated in the Q3-Q4 cycle , and a peak in orders for AI manufacturing facilities is confirmed.

VII. Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers and Alternative Industries

item

detail

Tariff rateAverage 3-5%, most FTA-applicable items are duty-free
Non-tariff factorsTechnology transfer restrictions, export controls, and certification (CE, UL)
Domestic alternative industriesDomestic production of semiconductor equipment (30%), manufacturing of industrial robots (40%)
Future tasksAiming for 60% domestic production of AI control equipment and process robots

Although the dependence on technology in the advanced equipment sector remains high , the rate of localization is gradually improving.

Ⅷ. ESG·Net Zero Correlation

item

evaluation

analysis

Energy efficiencyawardExpansion of high-efficiency facilities and robotization
ESG impactmiddleCarbon emissions still remain during the manufacturing stage
Contribution to carbon reductionawardExpanding imports of new boilers and energy-saving equipment

Machinery is equipped with many carbon-reducing facilities, contributing to improved industry ESG performance .

Ⅸ. Country-specific risk indices

importing country

Political/Policy Risk (0–1)

Technology and Regulatory Risk (0–1)

Logistics Risk (0–1)

Trust Index

japan0.240.350.220.79
USA0.220.310.280.81
germany0.260.270.300.77
Netherlands0.230.400.290.74
china0.510.580.390.56

The average Trust Index is 0.73 (good) . Supply stability is high
thanks to technology-based procurement centered on Japan and the United States , but the variable of technology control over China still exists.

Ⅹ. Key Buyers and Industry Links

industry

Major companies

Main equipment used

note

semiconductorSamsung Electronics and SK HynixExposure, etching, and packaging equipmentFocused on ASML and LAM
automobileHyundai Motor Company and Kia MotorsAssembly, welding, and inspection robots70% of products from Germany and Japan
Energy and PlantsHanwha and Doosan EnergyBoiler, turbine, and SMR equipmentRE100 compliant
Machinery and Small BusinessLS, Hyundai Wia, and Hanwha Precision MachineryMachine tools and laser cutting machinesExpanding local production
Ⅺ. Summary of Industry Dependency

item

Dependency

movement

semiconductor equipment74% import dependenceLocalization rate 26%
industrial automation58% import dependenceDomestic robot penetration rate increases
SMR·Boiler equipment80% import dependenceNew technology-based facilities

The average import dependency of the HS84 product group is approximately 68% , and the import of AI-controlled and smart factory-type equipment
to secure manufacturing competitiveness continues to expand.

Ⅻ. AI Trade Index and 3-Month Forecast (Trade Index v2.0 – Imports Edition)

characteristic

Currently (2025 Q3)

Compared to the previous quarter (Δ%)

analysis

ΔImport+2.8%▲1.4Solid imports of semiconductors, robots, and SMR equipment
ΔPrice+2.1%▲0.7Rising unit prices of advanced equipment
ΔCountryShare+0.9%▲0.5Increased weighting of Japan and the US (stability increases)
Trust Index0.73=Maintain good level
Forecast(3M)+3.9%Q4 CAPEX Focus Reflects Investment in New Lines

Summary:
Korea's machinery imports are entering a structural expansion phase, centered on AI manufacturing and energy equipment
. While import prices are expected to continue rising in the medium term, the nature of this increase is largely driven by investment to secure industrial competitiveness.

ⅩⅢ. Policy Recommendations and System Improvement Roadmap

division

Suggestion

Expected effect

1Expanding the R&D fund for localizing advanced manufacturing facilitiesReducing dependence on technology
2Expanding long-term supply agreements for semiconductor and AI equipmentSecuring stable procurement
3Establishment of a preferential tariff system for carbon-saving machinery and equipmentStrengthening ESG competitiveness
4AI procurement forecasting based on machine import dataReduce costs and minimize risks
5Diversification strategy (expanding EU and ASEAN import lines)Supply Chain Risk Mitigation
ⅩⅣ. General Conclusion

HS84 (Machinery) Imports Trade Index – 2025 Q3
ΔImport +2.8% , ΔPrice +2.1% , Trust Index 0.73 , Forecast (3M) +3.9%
Outlook: Stable Uptrend (Positive).
Imports, particularly semiconductors, robots, and SMR equipment, continue to expand, and the industry is transitioning to an investment structure focused on securing industrial competitiveness.
In the long term, policies that simultaneously enhance localization and diversify supply chains are required.