The semiconductor trade environment between 2025 and 2030 is being restructured around non-tariff, technological, and geopolitical risks,
rather than tariffs. The US Export Administration (EAR), the EU's expansion of the CBAM, and China's import substitution are all simultaneously impacting the market, and Korea must focus on securing supply chain stability
through FTAs .
Key Risk Factors | view | Influence (1~5) | Response strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| The US-China Semiconductor Hegemony Competition | Prolongation (continuation of the Chips Act) | 5 | Korea-US Supply Chain Cooperation and China Risk Diversification |
| EU CBAM Extension | Expected to include the semiconductor power consumption industry by 2030 | 4 | Preparing for RE100 transition and carbon intensity disclosure |
| Geopolitics (Taiwan and Hong Kong) | Continued instability | 4 | Leverage multinational sourcing and regional accumulation |
| Exchange rate (USD/KRW) | Around 1,380 to 1,420 won | 3 | Stabilization of export prices |
| Logistics and transportation costs | +8% year-on-year | 2 | FOB terms and insurance readjustment |
While the institutional benefits of FTAs are clear, companies in the field are complaining about the practical burdens associated with certification of origin, parts multinationalization, and certification procedures . As of 2025, the semiconductor industry's FTA utilization rate is approximately 85%, with small and medium-sized partner companies utilizing the system less frequently than large corporations.
division | FTA utilization rate (%) | Certified exporter ratio (%) | Major challenges | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor finished products (8542) | 87 | 72 | Certificate of Origin Management Costs, Multi-tiered Sourcing | Non-preferential customs clearance + FTA parallel efficiency |
| Electronic components (8541·8536) | 83 | 65 | PSR uncertainty, component multinationalization | RVC·CTH parallel |
| Equipment & Parts (8473) | 79 | 61 | Overseas relocation of assembly processes | Accumulated use within the region |
| Wafers and Materials (3818) | 76 | 59 | Environmental certification/RoHS compliance | ESG certification needs to be strengthened |
While most FTAs are in effect, actual trade competitiveness depends on non-tariff barriers and technical regulations
. Specifically, the United States is strengthening its export controls (EAR), the EU is strengthening its environmental regulations (RoHS and REACH), and China is strengthening its domestic market protection-focused system.
division | MFN(%) | FTA application (%) | difference | Major non-tariff barriers | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0 | 0 | 0 | EAR technology controls and ITA parallel implementation | IRA influence |
| EU | 0~3 | 0 | -3 | RoHS·REACH, environmental labeling | Korea-EU cumulative utilization |
| china | 5~8 | 0 | -8 | Import substitution and technology transfer demands | Supply Chain Risk |
| vietnam | 5 | 0 | -5 | Certification and Quarantine Procedures | RCEP cumulative effect |
| japan | 0 | 0 | 0 | TBT Center (Quality and Safety Standards) | Focus on non-tariff management |
The semiconductor industry is a power-intensive industry and, while not directly subject to CBAM, is likely to expand into indirect emissions (power-based industries)
by 2030. In addition to the EU and UK CBAM, global semiconductor companies (Samsung, TSMC, Intel) are strengthening their RE100 and carbon reduction reporting systems.
policy | Applicable target | Implementation period | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU CBAM | Steel and aluminum → semiconductor expansion projected for 2030 | 2026~2030 | 3 | Preparation for the disclosure of electricity consumption and emissions data |
| IRA (USA) | Clean energy and battery-focused | 2025 | 2 | Semiconductor manufacturing subsidy linkage |
| RE100 | global semiconductor company | Always | 4 | The need to expand renewable power procurement |
The global semiconductor supply chain is trending toward dual bases , and Korea is reorganizing into a hybrid model that maintains R&D-focused clusters while distributing production bases to the US and EU.
scenario | region | characteristic | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plan A | Korea (Yongin, Pyeongtaek, Cheonan) | R&D·Materials-focused | Strengthening technological independence and research efficiency |
| Plan B | United States (Texas·Arizona) | Manufacturing-focused, IRA tax benefits | Securing stability in the North American market |
| Plan C | EU (Poland·Germany) | Korea-EU cumulative utilization | CBAM response and EU market expansion |
| Plan D | ASEAN (Vietnam·Malaysia) | Post-processing/packaging | Reduce labor costs and diversify supply chains |
AutoLoop analysis results show a mild upward trend in the short-term outlook for Korean semiconductor exports as of the fourth quarter of 2025.
The combined forecast of ΔSignal, ΔFTAEffect, and ΔPrice is +0.48 percentage points, indicating stable growth driven by FTA utilization.
variable | Δ (%) | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +2.1 | Recovery in exports to the US and EU |
| ΔImport_now | +1.4 | Increase in equipment and material imports |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.3 | Expanding the proportion of high value-added products |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.028 | Maintain positive signals |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.31 | MFN-FTA gap and PSR satisfaction effect |
| Forecast_3M | +0.48 (bullish forecast) | Outlook for moderate export expansion |
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simplification of Certificate of Origin | Expanding autonomous issuance of multinational sourcing parts | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Korea Customs Service | Increasing utilization rates of small and medium-sized enterprises |
| Expansion of cumulative regulations | Mutual cumulative recognition between Korea, the EU, and RCEP | Trade Negotiation Headquarters | Supply chain stabilization |
| Expansion of digital trade | Semiconductor design and IP included in FTA service provisions | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy·KOTRA | Expansion of intangible trade |
| ESG Trade Finance | Carbon Reduction and Renewable Energy Linked Trade Credit | Ministry of Strategy and Finance and Ministry of Environment | Promoting Sustainable Trade |
| AI predictive trade support | Building real-time import/export signals based on AutoLoop | Korea Customs Service and KITA | Implementing predictive trade policies |
The core of FTAs is shifting from tariff reduction to supply chain, technology, and ESG responsiveness.
The cumulative provisions of the Korea-US and Korea-EU agreements are a real competitive factor when transferring post-processing overseas.
AutoLoop forecast (ΔForecast_3M +0.48%) signals a gradual increase in exports.
2025-2030 Response Direction: Triple Integrated Strategy of “ FTA + ITA + ESG .”
