division | Key Contents | Basis and Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global Energy Market Situation | Oil prices and refining margins are volatile, and Middle East risks persist. | Reuters (2025.3), IEA report |
| Korean energy policy | Expand nuclear power and renewable energy, and raise carbon reduction targets | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy's 2050 Net Zero Roadmap |
| Import dependence | Energy self-sufficiency rate of approximately 2.5%, 100% dependence on imports for crude oil and petroleum | KESIS Energy Statistics (2024) |
South Korea is highly dependent on fossil fuel imports, including crude oil, refined oil, and LNG, and is sensitive to fluctuations in international oil prices and exchange rates.
As of the third quarter of 2025, OPEC+ production cuts and declining European inventories are contributing to rising oil prices.
item | Details | Data source |
|---|---|---|
| HS code | 27 (Mineral fuels, oils and distillate products) | UN Comtrade |
| Main detailed items | Crude oil (2709), refined petroleum (2710), liquefied petroleum gas (2711) | Customs Service statistics |
| Major domestic import companies | SK Energy, GS Caltex, S-Oil, Hyundai Oilbank | Industrial Yearbook |
| Import volume | Approximately USD 145.47 billion in 2024 (25% of total imports) | Asian Exim Banks (2025) |
HS27 accounts for approximately 25% of Korea's total imports and is a key input for the refining and petrochemical industries.
ranking | importing country | Market share (%) | Features and Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 27 | Long-term contract-based, stable supply |
| 2 | USA | 22 | Shale oil price competitiveness and relatively stable logistics costs |
| 3 | Kuwait | 15 | The impact of OPEC's supply control policy |
| 4 | russia | 9 | Sanctions Risks Require Alternative Import Sources |
| 5 | Indonesia | 7 | Increased maritime logistics costs in Southeast Asia |
The top five countries account for over 80% of total imports, demonstrating a high degree of concentration. Geopolitical risks, particularly in Russia and the Middle East, are a significant short-term variable.
division | 2023 Q3 | 2024 Q3 | Increase/decrease (%) | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude oil (thousand barrels) | 273,000 | 267,500 | -2.0 | Impact of domestic refining facility reductions |
| Refined oil (thousand tons) | 19,500 | 20,400 | +4.6 | Some increase in demand for LNG alternatives |
| LNG (thousand tons) | 40,700 | 38,200 | -6.1 | nuclear power substitution effect |
The domestic refining capacity utilization rate averaged 87%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year. A decline in imports due to the expansion of nuclear power and renewable energy sources is evident.
division | 2024 Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Compared to the previous quarter (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 82.1 | 84.3 | 88.9 | +5.5 |
| Refining margin (USD/bbl) | 6.8 | 8.2 | 9.4 | +14.6 |
| Average CIF unit price | USD 756 / ton | USD 812 / ton | USD 845 / ton | +4.1 |
As international oil prices and refining margins turn upward, there is upward pressure on domestic import prices.
season | characteristic | Import Volatility Index (0–1) |
|---|---|---|
| Winter (December–February) | Growing demand for heating, leading to increased imports | 0.87 |
| Spring (March–May) | Regular maintenance and reduction period | 0.42 |
| Summer (June–August) | Increased revenue in response to peak electricity demand | 0.71 |
| Fall (September–November) | Slow income during the off-season | 0.55 |
Traditional seasonal patterns are maintained, with a particularly pronounced concentration of LNG and boiler fuel imports in winter.
item | detail |
|---|---|
| Tariff rate | Basic 3%, tariff-free for most FTA countries |
| Non-tariff factors | Environmental regulations, carbon taxes, and national import quotas |
| Domestic alternatives | Solar and wind power, hydrogen fuel cells |
Environmental regulations and carbon prices, rather than tariffs, are actually acting as barriers.
characteristic | Number / Grade | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| carbon emissions intensity | 1.0 (highest risk) | ESG risk is very high for direct emissions items. |
| ESG Compliance | Low | The need for transition fuel |
| Contribution to Net Zero Transition | - | Reduction target |
As a fossil fuel product, it carries high ESG risks and is directly affected by the Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Tax).
importing country | Political and economic risk (0~1) | Logistics Risk (0~1) | Comprehensive Trust Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 0.48 | 0.36 | 0.58 |
| USA | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.82 |
| russia | 0.76 | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| Indonesia | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| Kuwait | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Average Trust Index = 0.62 (average). Increasing the US weighting is expected to increase stability.
industry | Major companies | Import share | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| essential oil | SK Energy, GS Caltex | 52% | Refined raw materials |
| petrochemicals | Lotte Chemical, LG Chemical | 23% | Intermediate goods such as naphtha |
| Power generation (LNG) | Korea Gas Corporation, private power generation | 20% | Fuel for electricity |
The oil refining and petrochemical industries are directly linked to the national economy, and import instability has ripple effects on national prices and industrial production.
characteristic | Currently (2025 Q3) | Compared to the previous quarter (Δ%) | analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| ΔImport | -0.4% | ▼ 0.2 | Import volume stagnated |
| ΔPrice | +4.1% | ▲ 1.9 | rising oil prices |
| ΔCountryShare | -0.8% | ▼ 0.4 | Expanding Saudi Arabia's presence |
| Trust Index | 0.62 | = | Neutral level |
| Forecast (3M) | +2.7% | ▲ | Reflecting winter heating demand |
Summary: Imports will increase slightly in the short term, but supply instability and price risks persist. Policy measures to diversify imports and accelerate the energy transition are needed.
division | Suggestion | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diversification of import lines (expanding to the US and Southeast Asia) | Supply stability ↑ |
| 2 | Long-term supply contract + logistics hedging strategy | Price risk ↓ |
| 3 | Fuel conversion in response to carbon tax and CBAM | ESG risk ↓ |
| 4 | Continuous monitoring of AI-based trade indices | Prediction accuracy ↑ |
| 5 | Advancement of national oil reserve management policy | Supply and demand stability ↑ |
The Trade Index for South Korea's Import Items – Mineral Fuels and Oils (2025 Q3)
is assessed at ΔImport = -0.4%, ΔPrice = +4.1%, and TrustIndex = 0.62 (Neutral).
Accelerating the energy transition and diversifying import sources are key policy priorities going forward, and AI Loop forecasts project a slight upward trend over the next three months.
