In agricultural and food trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT), residue tolerance levels (MRLs), and country of origin labeling determine real competitiveness, rather than tariffs. Climate change, logistics, exchange rates, and the cycle of food safety regulation revisions are key variables. Processed foods are subject to regulations on sugar, oil, and additives, nutritional and allergen labeling, and packaging and recycling.
Risk factors | 2025-2026 Outlook | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate and crop fluctuations | Short-term supply and demand instability of certain items | 4 | Multilateral procurement and long-term offtake |
| Strengthening SPS and MRL | Raising the standards for residual and microbial substances | 5 | GAP·HACCP·Test Report System |
| Labeling and Nutrition Facts Regulations | Expanding nutrition and allergen obligations | 4 | Pre-review of formula and label is required |
| TRQ·Seasonal Tariff | Differences by item and season | 3 | FTA quota and seasonal strategy in parallel |
| Exchange rates and fares | Moderate volatility | 2 | CIF/FOB redesign and insurance optimization |
Raw agricultural products are significantly affected by tariff rate quotas (TRQs) and seasonal tariffs , while processed foods can be eroded by ingredient, additive, and labeling requirements . The country of origin determination standard (PSR) is applied in a mixed manner, with both CTH and RVC depending on the processing process . For small and medium-sized exporters, certification of origin, label translation, and ingredient verification are practical bottlenecks.
Classification (example HS) | FTA applicability (trend) | Major challenges | Management Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain and raw materials (HS10/07/08) | TRQ and seasonal tariffs have a significant impact | Quarantine, Sanitation, and MRL | Pre-consultation on GAP and quarantine at production sites |
| Dairy processing (HS04) | Agreement rate effect↑ | Fat, protein, and lactose regulations | HACCP, Labeling, and Refrigerated Logistics |
| Fisheries and processed meat (HS16) | Determination of origin and composition ratio | Allergens/Additives | Prepare recipe, COA, and process diagram |
| Processed foods (HS19/20/21) | RVC/CTH mixed | Nutrition, Labeling, and Advertising Regulations | Formula and Label Compliance |
In developed markets (the US, EU, and Japan) , SPS/TBT, nutritional labeling, and packaging regulations are more important than tariffs . In emerging markets (ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America), MFN, quarantine procedures, and halal/local certification are significant variables.
market | Representative items | Tariff (trend) | When FTA is applied | Non-tariff barriers (example) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Processed foods and dairy products | Low to medium rate | Tariff reduction/expansion | FDA·Nutrition Facts·FSVP | Pre-customs clearance and factory registration are required. |
| EU | Fruits and vegetables/processed foods | Low to medium rate | cut/quarter | EFSA·Allergen·Labeling in multiple languages | Strict MRL and additive regulations |
| japan | Fisheries and processed foods | low rate | Widespread cuts | JAS·Label·Hygiene | The agreement's effects are felt to be significant. |
| ASEAN | Grains and processed foods | Medium rate | RCEP/Bilateral Reduction | Quarantine, Halal, and Local Standards | Large deviations in customs clearance procedures |
Note: Actual tax rates and requirements may vary depending on HS subheadings, ingredients, season, and quotas. Pre-HTS assessment and label sample approval are recommended.
While agricultural products are not directly subject to CBAM, regulations on packaging (plastic and aluminum), electricity and water use, and waste disposal will be reflected in costs. Sustainability certifications (organic, animal welfare, MSC/ASC) and plastic reduction and recycling obligations will be expanded.
System/Issue | Core requirements | Influence (1~5) | react |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packaging and Circular Economy | Recycling, r-content, and labels | 4 | Lightweighting and conversion to r-resin |
| Sustainability Certification | Organic, eco-friendly, animal welfare | 3 | Building a Certification Portfolio |
| Water/Waste Management | Process, Cleaning, and Box | 3 | WUR·LCA data digitization |
| Carbon and Energy | Indirect Emissions Management | 2 | Improved renewable power and refrigeration efficiency |
Korea: Premium Processed Foods (Drying, Fermentation, HMR), K-Food Brands, Ready-to-Cook/Ready-to-Heat R&D Hub
US/EU: Localized manufacturing of K-source/vegan, gluten-free, and low-sugar products (optimized labeling and nutritional guidelines)
ASEAN: Raw Material Processing, Preprocessing, Freezing, and Canning Hub + RCEP Accumulation
Middle East: Halal-only lines and high-volume B2B formats
Integrates news and policy sentiment (α), global sentiment (β), sector sentiment (λ), and price and logistics variables. Agricultural and food products are subject to short-term fluctuations due to significant seasonality and promotional effects, but there are signs of gradual improvement , particularly in processed foods and premium categories .
variable | Δ(%) or exponent | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +1.9 | Processed foods, HMR, and sauces are the driving force |
| ΔImport_now | +1.2 | Strengthening imports of raw materials, additives, and packaging materials |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.3 | Stable premium/specialty unit price |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.025 | Regulatory compliance and positive brand demand |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.28 | TRQ, seasonal, and cumulative effects |
| Forecast_3M | +0.45 | A gradual improvement is expected over the next three months. |
Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPS/MRL support | Test, Quarantine, and Label Pre-Inspection Voucher | Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, KOTRA | Reduced return and delay costs |
| FTA+TRQ operation | Seasonal/Quarter-Based Distribution/Notification System | Customs Service and Trade Association | Increased perceived tariff effect |
| Labeling and Nutrition Facts | Multilingual label templates and regulations database | Ministry of Food and Drug Safety and Korea Export Association | Mitigating customs risks |
| digital trade | Ingredients, SDS, and COA Data Transmission Standards | Trade authorities | Reduced document costs and faster customs clearance |
| Brand/GI | Geographical Indications and K-Brand Joint Marketing | Local governments and export associations | Maintain premium pricing |
The effectiveness of FTAs in agriculture and food processing is the sum of tariff reduction and SPS/TBT/labeling/TRQ operation .
Forecast_3M: +0.45 — Moderate improvement centered on processing and premiums, with pre-labeling and quarantine compliance driving profitability.
Recommended strategies: ① Pre-confirmation of HS, ingredients, and labels ② TRQ and seasonal strategies ③ GAP/HACCP/COA data lake ④ RCEP accumulation and localization in parallel.
