The AI semiconductor and HPC industries are at the forefront of the US-China technology competition and supply chain restructuring
, and FTAs play a key role in facilitating technology and IP exchanges, equipment exports, talent mobility, and the opening of procurement markets
. The global AI chip market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 18% between 2025 and 2026 (expected to reach USD 95 billion in 2025).
Korea is expanding design IP, fabless and foundry cooperation, and high-performance computing exports through the EU, UAE, and RCEP . Key risks include US CHIPS Act regulations, export controls, AI ethics and security regulations , and demands for carbon neutrality (the spread of CBAM-type ICT) .
Risk factors | 2025-2026 Outlook | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHIPS Act | Continued US-China technology control | 5 | Need for joint ventures in the US |
| FTA norms | Insufficient semiconductor IP provisions | 4 | The need to expand the technology chapter within CEPA and IPEF |
| Supply chain restructuring | Dependence on core components such as equipment, materials, and AI chips | 4 | Diversification strategy is essential |
| CBAM ICT diffusion | Power Regulations for Data Centers and AI Chips | 3 | LCA and RE100 response required |
| AI regulation | Impact of the EU AI Act | 3 | Establishment of technical standards and ethical regulations |
In the semiconductor and HPC industries, FTAs should prioritize IP protection, research cooperation, and standards integration over technology exchange, tariff reductions, and market access . In particular, the Korea-EU FTA provides a basis for mutual recognition of semiconductor and ICT technology standards with the EU, while RCEP and CEPA are contributing to the decentralization of production bases in Asia.
field | FTA applicability | Major challenges | Management Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI chip/GPU (HS8542) | Korea-EU-RCEP | IP protection and standard differences | Joint development based on technology agreement |
| HPC Server (HS8471) | CEPA·RCEP | Composite structure of origin | Utilization of cumulative origin |
| Design SW·EDA | IPEF·DEPA | Lack of digital norms | Data transfer liberalization provisions |
| Materials and equipment | RCEP | Protection of technical secrets | Parallel technology protection agreement |
While most AI chips and HPC-related products have low tariffs, security, data transfer, and AI ethics regulations act as non-tariff barriers.
FTAs serve as a crucial foundation for public HPC project bidding, technology procurement, and cooperation on IP protection .
market | Main items | MFN (basic rate) | When FTA is applied | non-tariff barriers | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | HPC·AI chips | 0~3% | 0% | AI Act·CBAM | CE/ISO certification required |
| USA | NPU·GPU | 0~2% | low rate | CHIPS·Export Controls | Local corporation required |
| japan | semiconductor equipment | 1~4% | RCEP application | Strict technical agreement | The need to strengthen joint R&D |
| UAE | HPC system | 5~10% | Step-by-step removal through CEPA | ICT Certification Regulations | Expanding Korea-UAE Digital Partnership |
| ASEAN | semiconductor components | 3~8% | RCEP cumulative | Differences in technical standards | Glass for expanding production base |
The AI semiconductor and HPC industries, due to their high power consumption, require ESG and RE100 compliance.
The EU is promoting disclosure of the power efficiency and carbon footprint of data centers and AI chips
, and the US and Japan are also pursuing Green HPC and Zero-carbon chip policies.
System/Issue | Core requirements | Influence (1~5) | react |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBAM ICT Expansion | Data Center and HPC Carbon Disclosure | 4 | Building RE100·LCA |
| ESG procurement | Energy efficiency and supply chain transparency | 4 | ESG reporting is mandatory |
| RE100 | 100% renewable power for chip manufacturing facilities | 3 | PPA·ESS linkage |
| AI Code of Ethics | Responding to the EU AI Act | 3 | Establishing technical and ethical standards |
| Semiconductor Human Rights Investigation | Strengthening supply chain transparency | 2 | Expanding ESG Certification |
Korea: Strengthening AI/HPC-focused semiconductor design and manufacturing clusters (Pyeongtaek, Yongin, and Pangyo).
EU: Demand for Green HPC Surges in Preparation for AI Act Implementation, Expanding Procurement Market Openness.
UAE: Joint project to build AI chip data centers based on CEPA.
ASEAN: Expanding semiconductor post-processing, packaging, and AI module assembly bases.
United States: CHIPS Act promotes local production and restricts technology transfer.
Combining AI sentiment (α), global HPC investment indicators (β), and semiconductor industry sentiment (λ), a robust upward trend is expected
in the fourth quarter of 2025 , driven by increased demand for AI chips and HPC and increased utilization of FTAs .
variable | Δ(%) or exponent | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +3.8 | Expanding AI chip and GPU exports |
| ΔImport_now | +1.5 | Increase in equipment and material imports |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.6 | Wafer and equipment unit prices rise |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.046 | AI investment momentum continues |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.41 | Effects of CEPA and RCEP technology agreements |
| Forecast_3M | +0.70 | 3-month upward trend maintained |
Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical standards | Leading the way in international standards for AI chips and HPC | Ministry of Science and ICT and Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy | Technology standards driven |
| FTA Technology Chapter | New provisions reflecting IP and AI standards | Trade Headquarters | Responding to export regulations |
| ESG·RE100 | Semiconductor Cluster RE100 Transition | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Korea Electric Power Corporation | Reducing carbon emissions and strengthening procurement competitiveness |
| CHIPS Act Response | Establishing a Korea-US-EU supply chain agreement | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy·KOTRA | Dual stability in technology and market |
| Talent and Data | Expanding AI and HPC talent exchange provisions | Ministry of Education/NIA | Strengthening the innovation ecosystem |
In the AI semiconductor and HPC industries, FTA-based technology and data cooperation is key to global competitiveness.
Forecast_3M: +0.70 — Reflecting the effects of technology agreements such as CEPA, RCEP, and IPEF and the expansion of AI investment.
Recommended strategies: ① Strengthening the AI/data chapter within the FTA ② Establishing a RE100-type semiconductor production system
③ Responding to the EU AI Act ④ Accelerating entry into the Korea-EU/UAE technology procurement market.
