division | Main contents | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| global economy | Manufacturing and construction recovery | Increased demand for imported aluminum |
| Energy costs | Rising electricity prices → Increased refining costs | Rising costs and pressure to raise unit prices |
| Environmental and carbon regulations | Items subject to CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment) | Low-carbon aluminum imports are expected to expand. |
| Geopolitical risks | Sanctions and supply instability from Russia and China | Alternative supply line needed |
Carbon regulations and manufacturing recovery are changing the aluminum import structure, and demand for low-carbon and recycled products is rapidly increasing.
item | detail |
|---|---|
| HS code | 76 (Aluminum and articles thereof) |
| Main subcategories | 7601 (unprocessed aluminum), 7606 (plates, sheets, and strips), 7608 (pipes), 7610 (structures), 7612 (containers), etc. |
| Import volume in 2024 | Approximately USD 10.2 billion (+6.1% YoY) |
| Major demand sources | Automobiles, electrical and electronics, construction, packaging materials, batteries |
| Product structure | Raw materials (ingots, billets) 55%, processed materials (plates, extrusions, alloys) 45% |
Imports of lightweight components for secondary batteries and electric vehicles are growing rapidly, and the proportion of carbon-neutral aluminum (green aluminum) is increasing.
ranking | importing country | specific gravity(%) | Features and Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | china | 31.2 | Focused on extruded and processed materials, highly competitive in price |
| 2 | russia | 19.8 | Raw Aluminum Supply and Sanctions Risks |
| 3 | UAE | 12.6 | Low-carbon aluminum (Emirates Global Aluminum) |
| 4 | India | 9.4 | Alloy ingots and plates |
| 5 | australia | 7.1 | High-purity alumina raw material |
| 6 | Canada | 6.3 | Hydropower-based low-carbon aluminum |
| 7 | USA | 5.1 | Alloy bars and special materials |
| etc | 8.5 | Japan, Norway, etc. |
The top five countries account for over 80% of the total , with a structure centered on China and Russia, but the proportion of low-carbon aluminum from the UAE and Canada is increasing to address carbon risks .
nation | Import share (%) | Δ Proportion (compared to previous quarter) | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| china | 31.2 | ▲0.8 | Continued price competitiveness |
| russia | 19.8 | ▼0.7 | Uncertainty over the easing of sanctions |
| UAE | 12.6 | ▲0.5 | Expansion of low-carbon products |
| India | 9.4 | ▲0.3 | Increase in the proportion of processed materials |
| australia | 7.1 | = | Stable supply of alumina |
| Canada | 6.3 | ▲0.4 | Increase in ESG certified products |
| USA | 5.1 | = | Demand for industrial alloy rods |
| etc | 8.5 | ▼1.3 | Decrease in Japan, Norway, etc. |
Rising share of China, UAE, and Canada → Supply diversification and eco-friendly transition in parallel.
division | 2023 Q3 | 2024 Q3 | Increase/decrease (%) | characteristic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unprocessed (Ingots·Billets) | 2.62 Mt | 2.78 Mt | +6.1 | Recovery of the automobile and shipbuilding industries |
| Extruded and processed materials | 1.18 Mt | 1.26 Mt | +6.8 | Electrical and Electronics/Construction |
| Packaging and container materials | 0.34 Mt | 0.36 Mt | +5.9 | Food and beverage/pharmaceutical packaging |
| Alloys and Recycling | 0.42 Mt | 0.48 Mt | +14.3 | Low-carbon aluminum imports surge |
Imports of recycled and low-carbon aluminum surge (▲14%) , and ESG demands are restructuring the market structure.
Item | 2024 Q1 (USD/t) | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| unprocessed ingot | 2,340 | 2,410 | 2,460 | +2.1% |
| Extruded and processed materials | 3,180 | 3,240 | 3,320 | +2.5% |
| low-carbon aluminum | 2,710 | 2,760 | 2,830 | +2.5% |
| alloy material | 2,930 | 2,970 | 3,030 | +2.0% |
Unit price is gradually increasing due to rising electricity costs and CBAM response costs .
branch | characteristic | Volatility (0–1) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | manufacturing and construction slump | 0.45 |
| Q2 | Industrial production expansion period | 0.58 |
| Q3 | Peak demand (automobiles, electrical and electronics) | 0.72 |
| Q4 | Import and export regulator | 0.55 |
item | detail |
|---|---|
| tariff | FTA tariff-free, 3-5% on some alloy materials |
| Non-tariff | CBAM (Carbon Border Tax) and Strengthened Origin Certification Requirements |
| Domestic alternative industries | Domestic production of POSCO Aluminum, Korea Zinc, Dongkuk Steel, etc. |
| assignment | Securing low-carbon smelting technology and expanding recycled aluminum |
characteristic | evaluation | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon emissions impact | award | Carbon-intensive smelting process |
| ESG Risk | middle | Ethical and environmental issues in some supplier countries (Russia) |
| Net Zero Contribution | award | Expanding low-carbon aluminum and recycled products |
| circular economy | award | Recycled ingot market growth (over 20%) |
importing country | Policy (0–1) | Logistics (0–1) | Trust Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| china | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.68 |
| russia | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| UAE | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.82 |
| India | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.75 |
| australia | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.84 |
| Canada | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.85 |
| USA | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.79 |
Average Trust Index ≈ 0.75 (Good) – Trust is recovering due to a decline in Russian risk and an increase in eco-friendly imports, centered on the UAE and Canada .
industry | Major companies | Imported items | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| automobile | Hyundai, Kia, and Hyundai Mobis | extruded materials, sheet materials | Focus on lightweight |
| Electrical and Electronics | Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics | Thin plate/case | For mobile devices and batteries |
| Construction and industrial materials | POSCO E&C, Doosan, Hyundai ENG | structural aluminum | High proportion of imports |
| Packaging and Consumer Goods | Dongwon, Lotte, and OB Beer | Packaging cans and films | Aluminum container center |
| secondary battery | SK On·LGES | foils | High dependence on imports |
characteristic | Currently (2025 Q3) | Compared to the previous quarter (Δ%) | analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| ΔImport | +5.3% | ▲0.9 | Manufacturing Recovery and Demand for ESG Materials |
| ΔPrice | +2.2% | ▲0.4 | Reflecting rising electricity costs |
| ΔCountryShare | +0.5% | ▲0.2 | Increased share of UAE and Canada |
| Trust Index | 0.75 | ▲0.02 | Improved supply stability |
| Forecast (3M) | +5.7% | ▲ | Electric vehicle and construction demand forecast to continue |
Summary: HS 76 imports are showing a solid upward trend (positive) .
The expansion of the electric vehicle, secondary battery, and construction industries, as well as the low-carbon transition, are driving imports.
division | Suggestion | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Introduction of a low-carbon and recycled aluminum certification system | CBAM Response and ESG Trust Securing |
| 2 | Expanding recycled aluminum production infrastructure | Stabilizing the domestic supply chain |
| 3 | Import distribution (Russia → UAE, Canada, Australia) | Risk Mitigation |
| 4 | Building an AI-based import price prediction system | Cost management efficiency |
| 5 | Support for R&D on lightweight materials for electric vehicles and batteries | Responding to high value-added demand |
HS 76 (Aluminum) Imports Trade Index – 2025 Q3
ΔImport +5.3% , ΔPrice +2.2% , Trust 0.75 , Forecast (3M) +5.7% → A stable growth phase
with a parallel recovery in the manufacturing industry and ESG transition , along with mitigation of Russian sanctions risks and an increase in the proportion of low-carbon aluminum, are assessed as key trends.
