I. Macroeconomic Environment and Trade Risk Analysis

The drone and UAM industries are next-generation transportation industries that converge aviation, batteries, and ICT .
FTAs ​​play a key role in facilitating technology exchange, procurement market entry, and mutual recognition of safety certifications
. The global UAM market is expected to grow by an average of 12-15% annually (to approximately USD 18 billion) between 2025 and 2026, and
Korea is strengthening its technology and component export base through the Korea-EU, CEPA, and RCEP
. Key risks include aviation certification (EASA and FAA) mismatches , battery and communications regulations , and delays in airspace management legislation .

 

Risk factors

2025-2026 Outlook

Influence (1~5)

Implications

Aviation Safety Certification RegulationsFAA and EASA certification discrepancies persist5Utilization of technical provisions within CEPA is essential.
Battery and Power Safety RegulationsDiffers from UN38.3 and IEC standards4International certification is required in parallel.
Telecommunications, satellite, and GPS regulationsFrequency management varies by country3Standardization of Digital Aviation Standards through DEPA and IPEF
Infrastructure and airspace managementInadequate UAM takeoff and landing pads and control systems3The need for intergovernmental infrastructure cooperation
Parts supply chainDependence on overseas motors and sensors4Accumulated use of origin through RCEP and CEPA
Ⅱ. FTA Utilization Rate and Corporate Practice Statistics

TA plays a practical role in facilitating trade in components, communications, and batteries for the drone and UAM industries , as well as
in opening procurement markets, mutual recognition of technology certification, and cooperation on standardization
. Provisions in the Korea-EU-CEPA and RCEP agreements for aviation, machinery, and electrical and electronic components are resulting in
tariff reductions and simplified certification
. The UAE and the EU are jointly pursuing UAM and drone pilot city projects.

field

FTA applicability

Major challenges

Management Points

Drone Parts (HS8806/8537)CEPA·RCEPSafety certification and aviation regulationsCE and FAA certifications in parallel
UAM airframe and moduleCEPA·EUFTADifference in technical standardsEASA and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport are promoting joint standards.
Battery and power systemCEPA·RCEPHazardous Materials RegulationsSimultaneous application of UN38.3 and KC
Communication and navigation equipmentIPEF·DEPAFrequency regulationEstablishing standards for satellite and data transfer
III. Matrix of Comparison of Tariffs and Non-Tariffs by Country

Drone and UAM-related products are high-value-added industries with low tariffs, but
aviation safety, power, and communications certifications represent substantial non-tariff barriers.
Mutual recognition of certification (MRA) and expanded technology provisions through FTAs ​​are key to export competitiveness.

market

Main items

MFN (basic rate)

When FTA is applied

non-tariff barriers

Comments

EUUAM, sensors, and motors2~5%0%EASA safety standards and GDPRCE certification and procurement entry glass
UAEDrone/control system5~10%Phase-out through CEPAFlight and communication regulationsKorea-UAE joint pilot project in progress
USAeVTOL/Drone Parts0~3%FTA low rateFAA certificationJoint research and local production are advantageous.
Japan and ASEANDrone/control module3~8%RCEP cumulative utilizationCommunication/Standard DeviationLocal joint development is advantageous
IndiaPower modules and components5~12%CEPA benefitsImport permit and customs proceduresParallel local assembly and technology transfer
Ⅳ. Impact of ESG, CBAM, and Eco-Friendly Fuels

The drone and UAM industries are evaluated as ESG-friendly industries due to their low-carbon mobility, but carbon emissions and LCA management in
batteries, materials, and production processes are being strengthened.

System/Issue

Core requirements

Influence (1~5)

react

ESG procurementLow-carbon batteries and recycled materials4Supply chain management based on LCA and RE100
CBAMImpact on steel and aluminum parts3CBAM certification in parallel
SAF (UAM fuel)Switch to eco-friendly fuel3Development of electric and hydrogen-based propulsion systems
Battery recyclingStrengthening EU battery regulations4Recycling Certification and ESG Reporting Obligations
RE100Mandatory use of renewable electricity in production facilities3Establishing a PPA·ESS procurement system
V. Investment and Supply Chain Transition Scenario

Korea: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Hyundai, and Hanwha to promote K-UAM pilot cities (Seoul, Busan, and Jeju).

UAE: Korea-UAE CEPA-based joint demonstration project (Abu Dhabi, Dubai).

EU: Expanding EASA-based aviation certification and procurement access, paralleling CBAM regulations.

ASEAN: Expanding drone logistics and safety control infrastructure, establishing local production bases.

US: FAA-certified eVTOL commercialization, deepening US-ROK technological cooperation.

Ⅵ. AI-based 3-month export and import forecasts

Combining AI news sentiment (α), global eVTOL investment indicators (β), and industrial sentiment (λ),
the drone and UAM industries are expected to maintain a gradual upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by the effects of the CEPA and RCEP agreements and increased global investment .

variable

Δ(%) or exponent

analysis

ΔExport_now+3.0Increase in UAM airframe and sensor exports
ΔImport_now+1.6Increase in motor and battery imports
ΔPrice_now+0.5Reflecting raw material and electricity costs
ΔSignal_now+0.039Positive investment sentiment and technology news
ΔFTAEffect+0.37Cumulative effects of CEPA and RCEP
Forecast_3M+0.603-month gradual rise forecast

Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice

VII. Policy Recommendations and System Improvement Roadmap

field

Suggestion

Executor

Expected effect

Aviation certificationEASA and FAA jointly promote MRAMinistry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Ministry of Trade, Industry and EnergyExpanding access to international procurement markets
FTA technical provisionsNew provisions for cooperation in UAM and drone technologyTrade Headquarters and Ministry of Science and TechnologyPreemptive technology export and standardization
Battery regulationExpanding recycling and RE100 incentives within CEPAMinistry of Environment and Ministry of Trade, Industry and EnergyEnsuring sustainability
Infrastructure procurementInternational bidding for UAM takeoff and landing pads and control systems approvedMinistry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport·KOTRAEPC export expansion
Human Resources and SafetyStandardization of UAM Pilot and Maintenance Certification SystemMinistry of Employment and Labor and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and TransportIndustrial expansion and job creation
Ⅷ. Summary of Conclusions

The drone and UAM industries can achieve growth based on technology exchange, procurement market entry, ESG, and RE100 through FTAs.

Forecast_3M: +0.60 — Reflecting the effects of CEPA and RCEP and global investment momentum.

Recommended strategies: ① Cumulative use of CEPA and RCEP ② Simultaneous response to EASA and FAA certification ③ Production transition based on RE100 and ESG ④ Expanding cooperation on global UAM demonstration cities.