The shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding industries are seeing accelerated liberalization of shipbuilding, navigation, and parts trade through FTAs , along with efforts toward carbon neutrality, fuel conversion, and procurement market restructuring . Global ship orders for 2025-2026 are expected to increase, centered on LNG and ammonia-powered vessels, and the EU-UAE-ASEAN FTA is expanding technology and parts exchanges. Meanwhile, IMO 2050 decarbonization regulations, CBAM, EEXI, and CII requirements are driving up import and export costs and operating costs.
Risk factors | 2025-2026 Outlook | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel conversion (carbon neutrality) | Accelerating the replacement of LNG with ammonia and methanol | 5 | The need to secure eco-friendly ship and engine technology |
| CBAM | Indirect impact on shipbuilding equipment and steel | 4 | LCA·MRV data acquisition required |
| Logistics costs | Exchange rate and freight rate fluctuation relief tax | 3 | Parallel use of contractual fare system and FTA provisions |
| North Korea's labor shortage | Increasing demand for highly skilled workers | 3 | Personnel exchange with overseas partner countries |
| Supply Chain Risk | Reliance on raw materials and equipment remains high. | 4 | The need for component diversification through RCEP and CEPA |
FTA utilization in the shipbuilding and logistics industries focuses on tariff reductions for ships and equipment , access to procurement markets , and mutual recognition of technology standards
. The EU, UAE, and ASEAN are expanding cooperation in ship parts and marine technology, and FTA provisions-based permits for maritime procurement and mutual opening of public procurement are having practical effects.
field | FTA applicability | Major challenges | Management Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipbuilding equipment (HS8901/8407) | Tariff reduction through RCEP and CEPA | CBAM indirect impact | MRV·Carbon Certification Preparation |
| Shipping services | Utilizing FTA service market opening provisions | Restrictions on overseas transportation | Actively utilize provisions within RCEP |
| Port and Logistics Equipment (HS8479/7308) | Application of CEPA and EUFTA | Safety and quality certification differences | Parallel ISO and EN certification |
| Marine Engineering | Expansion of technical provisions and procurement | Local bidding access limitations | Utilizing the CEPA Procurement Manual |
While trade in shipbuilding and logistics involves a small number of high-tariff items, procurement standards, safety, and environmental regulations pose barriers to entry.
Utilizing FTAs can significantly reduce entry costs through procurement certification and mutual recognition of technology standards.
market | Main items | MFN (basic rate) | When FTA is applied | non-tariff barriers | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Shipbuilding and shipbuilding equipment | 2~5% | 0% | CBAM·EN standards·safety standards | Carbon reduction equipment certification required |
| UAE | Port/EPC equipment | 5~10% | Phase-out through CEPA | Local procurement requirements | Expansion of EPC and port projects |
| ASEAN | Ship parts and logistics equipment | 3~8% | RCEP cumulative utilization | Customs Clearance/Standard Procedures | Production base/assembly glass |
| USA | Marine engineering equipment | 0~4% | Low rates within FTA | Buy America Limited | Mandatory local joint ventures |
IMO2050, CBAM, and ESG procurement standards are restructuring the export structure of the shipbuilding and logistics industries.
In particular, the EU and UAE require shipbuilding and logistics companies to submit LCA, carbon emissions, and ESG risk management reports .
System/Issue | Core requirements | Influence (1~5) | react |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMO2050 | Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 | 5 | Eco-friendly ships and low-carbon fuel application |
| EEXI·CII | Mandatory ship efficiency index | 5 | Engine and operational data monitoring |
| CBAM | Indirect impact on equipment and steel | 4 | LCA·MRV construction |
| ESG procurement | Environmental, labor, and safety standards | 4 | ESG certification and RE100 compliance |
| circular economy | Ship Recycling and Waste Regulations | 3 | Green Shipyard and Recycling Certification |
Korea: Maintaining technological leadership focused on LNG, ammonia-powered ships, and digital shipyards.
UAE and Saudi Arabia: Expanding Investment in Ports, EPC, and Offshore Plants Following CEPA
EU: Expanding cooperation on shipbuilding technology and decarbonization of shipping in response to CBAM
ASEAN: Developing a Production Hub for Medium-Sized Ships and Equipment
The United States: Strengthening Cooperation on Offshore Wind and Shipbuilding Technology Transfer
Integrated global order trends (β), news sentiment (α), and sector sentiment (λ).
The shipbuilding and logistics industries are expected to show a gradual upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by increased orders and the effects of the CEPA .
variable | Δ(%) or exponent | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +2.5 | Increase in LNG and ammonia propulsion ship exports |
| ΔImport_now | +1.4 | Increase in imports of equipment and parts |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.6 | Reflecting changes in steel and freight rates |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.034 | Positive news and improved ordering sentiment |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.33 | Cumulative effects of CEPA and RCEP |
| Forecast_3M | +0.56 | 3-month gradual rise forecast |
Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilizing FTA | Expansion of shipbuilding equipment provisions in CEPA and EUFTA | Trade Headquarters and Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy | Reduce export costs and expand markets |
| CBAM response | Building an LCA, MRV, and carbon reduction technology platform | Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries | Ensuring EU export sustainability |
| ESG·IMO | Fast Track for Ship Efficiency and ESG Certification | Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and Korea Shipbuilding Association | Strengthening order competitiveness |
| Marine technology cooperation | Establishment of Korea-UAE and Korea-EU Marine Technology Funds | KOTRA·Korea SMEs and Startups Agency | EPC·Shipbuilding Clustering |
| Logistics and Ports | Expansion of RCEP-based smart port projects | Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries | Improving export and import logistics efficiency |
FTAs contribute to improving technology and procurement accessibility in the shipbuilding and logistics industries and reducing CBAM response costs .
Forecast_3M: +0.56 — Export growth continues, led by LNG and ammonia vessels.
Recommended strategies: ① Cumulative use of CEPA and RCEP ② Establishment of CBAM and IMO response systems ③ Expansion of ESG and energy-efficient ships ④ Strengthening port and EPC cooperation.
